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Uncertainty quantification in groundwater volume predictions from seismic data using neural networks
Department of Technical Physics, University of Eastern Finland, Finland.
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Engineering Mechanics, Vehicle engineering and technical acoustics.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1855-5437
Computational Mathematics and Simulation Science, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
Institute of Seismology, University of Helsinki, Finland.
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2024 (English)In: 30th European Meeting of Environmental and Engineering Geophysics, Held at the Near Surface Geoscience Conference and Exhibition 2024, NSG 2024, EAGE Publications bv , 2024Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Optimum groundwater management is important for addressing the global challenges of water scarcity, especially in arid regions. This study demonstrates the application of synthetic data combined with seismic methods to quantify water volumes in a controlled sand pool environment, mimicking a subsurface aquifer. Utilizing seismic simulations, we employ the nodal discontinuous Galerkin method to generate data reflecting the propagation of seismic waves through a three-dimensional poroviscoelastic-viscoelastic medium. These data are then analyzed using fully connected neural networks optimized through hyperparameter tuning to predict the water volume from seismic signatures accurately. The approach incorporates Deep Evidential Regression, which quantifies two main types of uncertainties: aleatoric, resulting from measurement errors, and epistemic, resulting from inadequate model knowledge. This dual uncertainty quantification enhances the reliability and interpretability of the water volume predictions, providing a robust framework for groundwater monitoring. Our results indicate that the aleatoric uncertainties are nearly consistent but, epistemic uncertainties are large for higher values of water volume suggesting the possibility of adding more data for model improvement.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
EAGE Publications bv , 2024.
National Category
Geophysics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-358880DOI: 10.3997/2214-4609.202420086Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85214812532OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-358880DiVA, id: diva2:1930533
Conference
30th European Meeting of Environmental and Engineering Geophysics, Held at the Near Surface Geoscience Conference and Exhibition 2024, NSG 2024, Helsinki, Finland, September 8-12, 2024
Note

Part of ISBN 9789462825055

QC 20250124

Available from: 2025-01-23 Created: 2025-01-23 Last updated: 2025-01-24Bibliographically approved

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Göransson, Peter

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CiteExportLink to record
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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf