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A causality-based explainable AI method for bus delay propagation analysis
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning. School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, 430063, China; Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, 10044, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9990-4269
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2141-0389
School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, 100191, China.
2025 (English)In: Communications in Transportation Research, E-ISSN 2772-4247, Vol. 5, article id 100178Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Public transportation networks are highly interconnected, where disruptions like traffic congestion propagate bus delays and impact performance. Identifying delay causes is crucial, yet most studies rely on correlation-based methods rather than causal analysis. Attribution methods like the Shapley value quantify factor contributions but often overlook causal dependencies, leading to potential bias. This study uses a causal discovery model to uncover causal relationships between bus delays and various factors (e.g., operational factors, calendar, and weather). Based on this causal graph, an explainable Artificial Intelligence (AI) method quantifies each factor's contribution to delays, focusing on how these contributions vary at different stops along a route. By integrating scheduled route data and real-time vehicle locations, we analyze factor contributions over time and space, exploring various scenarios along the route. Cross-validation is conducted by comparing the importance ranking of factors with the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE). Results show significant variations in factors contributing to delays along the route. Delays at upstream stops propagate downstream, indicating a cascading effect. Operational factors dominate, accounting for 50%–83% of delays. Notably, delays from the preceding two to three stops have a larger impact than just the immediately preceding one stop, and origin delays strongly affect the first half of the route.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2025. Vol. 5, article id 100178
Keywords [en]
Bus delays, Causal contribution, Causal discovery, Explainable artificial intelligence (AI), General transit feed specification (GTFS) data
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics Computer Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-362544DOI: 10.1016/j.commtr.2025.100178Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105002130996OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-362544DiVA, id: diva2:1952992
Note

QC 20250424

Available from: 2025-04-16 Created: 2025-04-16 Last updated: 2025-04-24Bibliographically approved

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Zhang, QiMa, Zhenliang

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CiteExportLink to record
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