We study how the catastrophic 2011 Thailand flood affected Swedish firms that imported from Thailand, and find large and persistent long-run effects. Thai imports fell by 83 percent in the year following the flood, and the fall continued through to 2019 despite the relatively rapid recovery of Thai production. Thus, Swedish firms permanently switched suppliers. We also find evidence of re-shoring, but the dominant long-run effect is as switch to producers in other Asian countries.
QC 20250428