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On Reliability Methods Quantifying Risks to Transfer Capability in Electric Power Transmission Systems
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electromagnetic Engineering. (RCAM)
2009 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

In the operation, planning and design of the transmission system it is of greatest concern to quantify the reliability security margin to unwanted conditions. The deterministic N-1 criterion has traditionally provided this security margin to reduce the consequences of severe conditions such as widespread blackouts. However, a deterministic criterion does not include the likelihood of different outage events. Moreover, experience from blackouts shows, e.g. in Sweden-Denmark September 2003, that the outages were not captured by the N-1 criterion. The question addressed in this thesis is how this system security margin can be quantified with probabilistic methods. A quantitative measure provides one valuable input to the decision-making process of selecting e.g. system expansions alternatives and maintenance actions in the planning and design phases. It is also beneficial for the operators in the control room to assess the associated security margin of existing and future network conditions.

This thesis presents a method that assesses each component's risk to an insufficient transfer capability in the transmission system. This shows on each component's importance to the system security margin. It provides a systematic analysis and ranking of outage events' risk of overloading critical transfer sections (CTS) in the system. The severity of each critical event is quantified in a risk index based on the likelihood of the event and the consequence of the section's transmission capacity. This enables a comparison of the risk of a frequent outage event with small CTS consequences, with a rare event with large consequences.

The developed approach has been applied for the generally known Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS). The result shows that the ranking of the components is highly dependent on the substation modelling and the studied system load level.

With the restriction of only evaluating the risks to the transfer capability in a few CTSs, the method provides a quantitative ranking of the potential risks to the system security margin at different load levels. Consequently, the developed reliability based approach provides information which could improve the deterministic criterion for transmission system planning.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH , 2009. , 85 p.
Series
Trita-EE, ISSN 1653-5146 ; 2009:015
Keyword [en]
Power transmission reliability, power system security, reliability modeling, risk analysis for power systems, power system planning
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-10258ISBN: 978-91-7415-270-8 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-10258DiVA: diva2:212906
Presentation
2009-05-15, H1, Teknikringen 33, Stockholm, 10:00 (Swedish)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2009-05-06 Created: 2009-04-24 Last updated: 2010-11-01Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Introduction to HVDC Technology for Reliable Electrical Power Systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Introduction to HVDC Technology for Reliable Electrical Power Systems
2008 (English)In: Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2008, NEW YORK: IEEE , 2008, 560-567 p.Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The transmission system is becoming ever more complex. Furthermore, demand for reliable supply of electricity is growing, increasing the need for a higher level of system reliability. A solution might be to incorporate controllable power components within the system. One such component is the HVDC link. However, in the domain of reliability models for HVDC and the component's impact on the overall transmission system reliability, there is still much work to be done. This is an important issue in future grid planning, especially with an increasing penetration of HVDC links within synchronous transmission systems acting as "firewalls". These links may prevent disturbances propagating in the system, which is a common cause of blackouts. This paper provides a broad introduction to the HVDC technology and a literature review of reliability assessments published within this area. It gives a background to and motivation for the technology. Published reliability assessments of the HVDC technology have been reviewed and categorized. One conclusion is that a large number of models and methods for the reliability evaluation of the HVDC system itself have been published, but very few on its impact on the composite system reliability. One future challenge to be solved is how the "firewall" properties of the HVDC can be quantified in a reliability assessment.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
NEW YORK: IEEE, 2008
Keyword
Power transmission reliability, Reliability models, HVDC, transmission system
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-25813 (URN)000271680900082 ()2-s2.0-70349162522 (Scopus ID)978-193432521-6 (ISBN)
Conference
10th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2008; Rincon; 25 May 2008 through 29 May 2008
Note
QC 20101101Available from: 2010-11-01 Created: 2010-11-01 Last updated: 2011-03-01Bibliographically approved
2. Availability Assessment of the HVDC Converter Transformer System
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Availability Assessment of the HVDC Converter Transformer System
2008 (English)In: Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2008, New York: IEEE , 2008, 575-582 p.Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a reliability assessment of the HVDC converter transformer system (CTS) comparing different component models and configurations. The CTS model is based on the Markov modelling approach, which is shown to be well suited for these relatively small systems. The failure rate data in the models is based on statistical surveys by CIGRE. A number of scenarios are calculated in order to evaluate the impact of the availability of the CTS given different conditions. The result shows on the benefit in availability using a spare transformer, particularly at a close location of the HVDC station.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
New York: IEEE, 2008
Keyword
Converter Transformer, HVDC transmission, Markov processes, Power transmission reliability
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-25816 (URN)000271680900084 ()2-s2.0-70349147917 (Scopus ID)978-193432521-6 (ISBN)
Conference
10th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2008; Rincon; 25 May 2008 through 29 May 2008
Note
QC 20101101Available from: 2010-11-01 Created: 2010-11-01 Last updated: 2011-03-01Bibliographically approved
3. Components' Impact on Critical Transfer Section for Risk Based Transmission System Planning
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Components' Impact on Critical Transfer Section for Risk Based Transmission System Planning
2009 (English)In: 2009 IEEE Bucharest PowerTech: Innovative Ideas Toward the Electrical Grid of the Future / [ed] Toma L; Otomega B, IEEE , 2009, 368-375 p.Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In the planning of the electrical transmission system it is of greatest concern to quantify the security margin for unwanted conditions in the system. This paper proposes an approach based on quantifying the risk of insufficient transmission capacity in bottlenecks in the system. Stresses in these critical transfer sections (CTS) provide a potential risk to corrective actions, or worst, load curtailments. The proposed method provides a general screening of component outages in order to find potential risk events for the CTS. Furthermore, the severity of each risk event is quantified based on the likelihood of the event and the consequence on the section's transmission capacity. The components' contribution to the risk of insufficient capacity in the CTS is then based on these risk events' severity. The method investigates several forecasted load levels during the year and consequently gives an input to a scheme for a risk based transmission system planning. The method is demonstrated on the reliability test system RBTS.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2009
Keyword
Power transmission reliability, power system security, reliability modeling, risk analysis, power system planning
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-25819 (URN)000276834600057 ()2-s2.0-74949123727 (Scopus ID)978-1-4244-2234-0 (ISBN)
Conference
2009 IEEE Bucharest PowerTech: Innovative Ideas Toward the Electrical Grid of the Future; Bucharest; Romania; 28 June 2009 through 2 July 2009
Note

QC 20101101

Available from: 2010-11-01 Created: 2010-11-01 Last updated: 2014-10-09Bibliographically approved

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