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A Dynamic Transportation Model for the Stockholm Area: Implementation Issues Regarding Departure Time Choice and OD-pair Reduction
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301). (CTR)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3738-9318
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301). (CTR)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4531-8659
2009 (English)In: Networks and Spatial Economics, ISSN 1566-113X, E-ISSN 1572-9427, Vol. 9, no 4, 551-573 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Road traffic congestion is an increasing problem in urban areas. Building new roads often attracts latent demand and turns parts of the city into building sites for several years. Policy measures that stimulate more effective use of the existing network, such as variable road pricing, are therefore becoming increasingly popular among policy makers and citizens. These measures are often aimed at changing the temporal distribution of traffic. Yet transportation models taking departure time choice into account are rare. This paper describes the implementation of an urban transportation application for Stockholm, which includes departure time choice, mode choice and time dependent network assignment. Through iterations between demand and supply the objective of the transportation model is to forecast effects of congestion charges, intelligent transport systems and infrastructure investments on departure time choice. The complexity of large-scale departure time choice modelling and dynamic traffic assignment is high, which results in very long run times. Therefore, research on how to increase model efficiency is needed. This paper describes choices made in the implementation for a more efficient model.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer , 2009. Vol. 9, no 4, 551-573 p.
Keyword [en]
Transportation model, Departure time choice, Mixed logit, Dynamic traffic simulation, Peak-spreading, Congestion charges
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-10512DOI: 10.1007/s11067-009-9104-0ISI: 000273113200004OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-10512DiVA: diva2:218656
Projects
silvester
Note
QC 20100823Available from: 2009-05-20 Created: 2009-05-20 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Incorporation of Departure Time Choice in a Mesoscopic Transportation Model for Stockholm
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Incorporation of Departure Time Choice in a Mesoscopic Transportation Model for Stockholm
2009 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Travel demand management policies such as congestion charges encourage car-users to change among other things route, mode and departure time. Departure time may be especially affected by time-varying charges, since car-users can avoid high peak hour charges by travelling earlier or later, so called peak spreading effects. Conventional transport models do not include departure time choice as a response. For evaluation of time-varying congestion charges departure time choice is essential.

In this thesis a transport model called SILVESTER is implemented for Stockholm. It includes departure time, mode and route choice. Morning trips, commuting as well as other trips, are modelled and time is discretized into fifteen-minute time periods. This way peak spreading effects can be analysed. The implementation is made around an existing route choice model called CONTRAM, for which a Stockholm network already exists. The CONTRAM network has been in use for a long time in Stockholm and an origin-destination matrix calibrated against local traffic counts and travel times guarantee local credibility. On the demand side, an earlier developed departure time and mode choice model of mixed logit type is used. It was estimated on CONTRAM travel times to be consistent with the route choice model. The behavioural response under time-varying congestion charges was estimated from a hypothetical study conducted in Stockholm.

Paper I describes the implementation of SILVESTER. The paper shows model structure, how model run time was reduced and tests of convergence. As regards run time, a 75% cut down was achieved by reducing the number of origin-destination pairs while not changing travel time and distance distributions too much.

In Paper II car-users underlying preferred departure times are derived using a method called reverse engineering. This method derives preferred departure times that reproduce as well as possible the observed travel pattern of the base year. Reverse engineering has previously only been used on small example road networks. Paper II shows that application of reverse engineering to a real-life road network is possible and gives reasonable results.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2009. 25 p.
Series
TRITA-TEC-LIC, ISSN 1653-445X ; 09-001
Keyword
Transport Modelling, Departure Time Choice, Dynamic Traffic Simulation, Time-Varying Congestion Charges, Peak Spreading, Reverse Engineering
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-10516 (URN)978-91-85539-39-0 (ISBN)
Presentation
2009-06-04, V3, KTH, Teknikringen 72, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Projects
Silvester
Note

QC 20170222

Available from: 2009-05-26 Created: 2009-05-20 Last updated: 2017-02-22Bibliographically approved
2. Congestion Charging in Urban Networks: Modelling Issues and Simulated Effects
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Congestion Charging in Urban Networks: Modelling Issues and Simulated Effects
2011 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

One of the major challenges cities face today, in their development towards sustainable urban areas, is the need for an efficient and environmentally friendly transport system. This transport system should manage to tie together the city without strong adverse impact on urban environment, air-quality and climate change. The specialized labour (and leisure) market, typical of a large urban area, exaggerates the need for efficient travel, as it is increasingly difficult to live and work within short distances.   

The use of demand management tools has become more frequent in transport planning with this development towards more sustainable cities. Whereas investing in new capacity was previously the main response to increased demand for travel, there is a much broader range of policies in use today. One of these demand management tools is congestion charging. Singapore was first to implement congestion charging and during the last decade it was followed by London and Stockholm, with increasing support from the citizens as a consequence. Many other cities have performed feasibility studies for introduction of congestion charging. 

The development of transport models for prediction of demand management tools, such as congestion charging, has however not been able to keep up with this change in kind of policy. Transport models that were developed for prediction and evaluation of infrastructure investments, such as new motorways, are often used to forecast effects of policies aimed at managing demand, which too often results in poor prediction.

This thesis focuses on the needs for modelling of congestion charging. The state-of-practice models used before implementation in Singapore, London and Stockholm are reviewed, as well as more advanced dynamic models developed for prediction of congestion charging and other demand management tools. A number of gaps in the modelling of congestion charging are described and a new model called SILVESTER is developed, which closes some of these gaps. In particular, SILVESTER involves dynamic mesoscopic modelling of traffic flows, flexible departure times and users with heterogeneous preferences.

The thesis describes the implementation of SILVESTER and considers and compares different methods of demand aggregation in order to reduce run-time of the large-scale dynamic model (Paper I). It also describes how preferred departure times of road users can be determined in calibration such that consistency exists between the departure time choice model and dynamic traffic flows which are input to assignment (Paper II). The unique implementation of congestion charging in Stockholm gives the possibility to validate SILVESTER on real-world measurement of reductions in traffic flow and behavioural adjustments to the charges (Paper III). SILVESTER is then used to analyse several modified versions of the Stockholm congestion charging scheme and to compare welfare and equity effects of the different schemes. It is shown that the welfare of the current scheme could be improved if charges were allowed to differ by location and driving direction (Paper IV). It is shown that the benefits of congestion charges calculated using SILVESTER are greater than the benefits calculated with a static model. Finally, the reasons for the greater benefits are investigated (Paper V).

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2011. x, 59 p.
Series
Trita-TEC-PHD, ISSN 1653-4468 ; 11:003
Keyword
Transport Modelling, Congestion Charging, Departure Time Choice, Dynamic Traffic Simulation, Welfare Effects, Equity
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-43732 (URN)978-91-85539-79-6 (ISBN)
Public defence
2011-11-09, F3, Lindstedsvägen 26, KTH, Stockholm, 10:30 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
TrenOp, Transport Research Environment with Novel Perspectives
Note
QC 20111019Available from: 2011-10-19 Created: 2011-10-18 Last updated: 2012-06-12Bibliographically approved

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