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Towards Disaggregate Dynamic Travel Forecasting Models
Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
CRA International.
Caliper Corporation.
Northeastern University, Boston.
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2007 (English)In: Tsinghua Science and Technology, ISSN 1007-0214, Vol. 12, no 2, 115-130 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The authors argue that travel forecasting models should be dynamic and disaggregate in their representation of demand, supply, and supply-demand interactions, and propose a framework for such models. The proposed framework consists of disaggregate activity-based representation of travel choices of individual motorists on the demand side integrated with disaggregate dynamic modeling of network performance, through vehicle-based traffic simulation models on the supply side. The demand model generates individual members of the population and assigns to them socioeconomic characteristics. The generated motorists maintain these characteristics when they are loaded on the network by the supply model. In an equilibrium setting, the framework lends itself to a fixed-point formulation to represent and resolve demand-supply interactions. The paper discusses some of the remaining development challenges and presents an example of an existing travel forecasting model system that incorporates many of the proposed elements.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2007. Vol. 12, no 2, 115-130 p.
Keyword [en]
disaggregate, dynamic, travel forecasting
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-10895DOI: 10.1016/S1007-0214(07)70019-6OAI: diva2:228414
QC 20111012Available from: 2009-07-30 Created: 2009-07-30 Last updated: 2011-10-12Bibliographically approved

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Koutsopoulos, Haris N.
Transport Systems and Logistics

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