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SWAT model application and prediction uncertainty analysis in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Land and Water Resources Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering.
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Land and Water Resources Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering.
2010 (English)In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 24, no 3, 357-367 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Lake Tana Basin is of significant importance to Ethiopia concerning water resources aspects and the ecological balance of the area. Many years of mismanagement, wetland losses due to urban encroachment and population growth, and droughts are causing its rapid deterioration. The main objective of this study was to assess the performance and applicability of the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model for prediction of streamflow in the Lake Tana Basin, so that the influence of topography, land use, soil and climatic condition on the hydrology of Lake Tana Basin can be well examined. The physically based SWAT model was calibrated and validated for four tributaries of Lake Tana. Sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2), parameter solution (ParaSol) and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) calibration and uncertainty analysis methods were compared and used for the set-up of the SWAT model. The model evaluation statistics for streamflows prediction shows that there is a good agreement between the measured and simulated flows that was verified by coefficients of determination and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 0.5. The hydrological water balance analysis of the basin indicated that baseflow is an important component of the total discharge within the study area that contributes more than the surface runoff. More than 60% of losses in the watershed are through evapotranspiration. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2010. Vol. 24, no 3, 357-367 p.
Keyword [en]
SWAT, Lake Tana, hydrological modelling, SUFI-2, GLUE, ParaSol, WATER-QUALITY MODELS, BLUE NILE RIVER, CHAOHE BASIN, FLUCTUATIONS, CALIBRATION, PARAMETERS, HYDROLOGY, RAINFALL, BALANCE, FUTURE
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources Water Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-12019DOI: 10.1002/hyp.7457ISI: 000274048300010Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-77949580283OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-12019DiVA: diva2:294398
Note
QC20100719Available from: 2010-02-17 Created: 2010-02-17 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Modelling Hydrological and Hydrodynamic Processes in Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modelling Hydrological and Hydrodynamic Processes in Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia
2010 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Lake Tana Basin is of significant importance to Ethiopia concerning water resources aspects and the ecological balance of the area. The growing high demands in utilizing the high potentials of water resource of the Lake to its maximal limit, pictures a disturbing future for the Lake. The objective of this study was to assess the influence of topography, soil, land use and climatic varia-bility on the hydrological and hydrodynamic processes of the Lake Tana Basin. The physically based SWAT model was successfully calibrated and validated for flow and sediment yield. Se-quential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2), parameter solution (ParaSol) and generalized likelihood un-certainty estimation (GLUE) calibration and uncertainty analysis methods were compared and used for the set-up of the SWAT model. There is a good agreement between the measured and simulated flows and sediment yields. SWAT and GIS based decision support system that uses multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) was used to identify the most vulnerable areas to soil erosion in the basin. The results indicated that 12 to 30.5% of the watershed is high erosion potential. Pro-jected changes in precipitation and temperature in the basin for two seasons were analyzed using outputs from fifteen global climate models (GCMs). A historical-modification procedure was used to downscale large scale outputs from GCM models to watershed-scale climate data. The results showed significant changes in streamflow and other hydrological parameters in the period between 2045-2100. SWAT was combined with a three dimensional hydrodynamic model, GEMSS to investigate the flow structure, stratification, the flushing time, lake water balance and finally the Lake‘s water level response to planned water removal. We have found an alarming and dramatic fall of the water levels in Lake Tana as response to the planned water withdrawal. The combination of the two models can be used as a decision support tools to better understand and manage land and water resources in watersheds and waterbodies. The study showed that the Lake Tana Basin may experience a negative change in water balance in the forthcoming decades due to climate change as well as over abstraction of water resources.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH, 2010. viii, 66 p.
Series
Trita-LWR. PHD, ISSN 1650-8602 ; 1057
Keyword
Lake Tana, Climate Change, SWAT, Hydrological Modeling, Hydrodynamic, GEMSS, MCE, Streamflow, Sediment yield
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources Water Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-12024 (URN)978-91-7415-558-7 (ISBN)
Public defence
2010-03-05, F3, Lindstedtsvägen 26, KTH, Stockholm, 10:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note
QC 20100720Available from: 2010-02-17 Created: 2010-02-17 Last updated: 2011-05-24Bibliographically approved

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