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Transport telematics in urban systems: A backcasting Delphi study
KTH, Superseded Departments, Infrastructure and Planning.
1998 (English)In: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, ISSN 1361-9209, Vol. 3, no 6, 445-463 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper includes a presentation of the results from a scenario study on transport telematics in urban passenger transport. An international Delphi panel of 100 experts from 20 countries replied to questions on the feasibility and impact of a restricted number of different technical scenarios. The results show that most experts see substantial potential for limiting certain transport problems if there is broad implementation of transport telematics as described in this study. The majority of experts favoured a scenario based on extended public transport information. In that scenario, environmental gains were in practice paid for in terms of less comfortable trips and longer travel times.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
1998. Vol. 3, no 6, 445-463 p.
Keyword [en]
transport, telematics, scenario, backcasting, Delphi, survey
National Category
Engineering and Technology
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-13403DOI: 10.1016/S1361-9209(98)00021-2ISI: 000077593500006OAI: diva2:325100
QC 20100617Available from: 2010-06-17 Created: 2010-06-17 Last updated: 2010-06-17Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. What is the Point of IT?: Backcasting urban transport and land-use futures
Open this publication in new window or tab >>What is the Point of IT?: Backcasting urban transport and land-use futures
2000 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other scientific)
Abstract [en]

Sustainable development, future studies, informationtechnology, urban land-use and passenger transport. These arethe five concepts upon which this thesis and the eight papersit contains are based. The thesis includes both a developmentof future studies methodology, especially with regard tobackcasting, and analyses of the relationship betweensustainable development, information technology, transport andland-use in future cities

Paper I (Gudmundsson&Höjer, 1996) suggests foursustainable development principles and discusses theimplications of these four principles for the transportsystem.

Paper II (Höjer&Mattsson, 2000) is amethodological paper where backcasting is discussed in relationto some other future studies approaches. Moreover, the use of anumber of common empirical approaches in such studies iscriticised for being too deterministic.

Paper III (Höjer, 1997) presents a study where fourtechnical scenarios of intelligent transport systems weregenerated and evaluated. The evaluation used a Delphi-inspiredbackcasting approach, where a total of some 100 internationalexperts contributed to a two-round survey.

Paper IV (Höjer, 1998a) highlights three of thescenarios generated in Paper III and elaborates some resultsfrom the evaluation of them.

Paper V (Steen et al., 1999) uses assumptions, based onother studies, regarding global future energy supply as well ason the development of vehicle technology and traffic volumes.Based on these, a scenario of a sustainable transport systemfor Sweden in 2040 is developed.

Paper VI (Höjer, 2000b) looks at how the patterns ofcommuting and land-use can change with new organisationalforms. The change can either contribute to reduced trafficvolumes and a more sustainable transport system, or it can leadsociety even further into unsustainability.

Paper VII (Höjer, 2000a) reports from a calculation ofpotential effects on commuting from a change towards anode-structured Stockholm region. The calculation is based onorigin-destination matrices generated from a traffic analysismodel.

Paper VIII (Höjer, 1996) is a generalising analyticalpaper on the relationship between information technology,especially transport telematics, and sustainabledevelopment.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH, 2000. xi, 37 p.
Trita-IP. FR, 00-72
transport land-use information technology sustainable development
National Category
Engineering and Technology
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-3016 (URN)
Public defence
2000-09-22, 00:00
QC 20100617Available from: 2000-09-19 Created: 2000-09-19 Last updated: 2010-06-17Bibliographically approved

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