Experiences of the development and use of scenarios for evaluating Swedish national environmental objectives
2011 (English)In: Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies, ISSN 0016-3287, E-ISSN 1873-6378, Vol. 43, no 1, 1-15 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
The aim of the present paper is to present and evaluate a method for encouraging long-term thinking and considerations of a variety of scenarios in environmental policy processes. The Swedish environmental policy is based on 16 environmental objectives that national authorities are responsible for. They are evaluated annually and also in-depth every fourth year. Here we describe and explore a futures study project for introducing a more long-term thinking in the work with the environmental objectives, tested in the in-depth evaluation 2008. An experience was that it is difficult to design a collective scenario work in a case with a wide variety of objectives and with individuals with different backgrounds. However, this difficulty makes it even more important to incorporate futures studies in authorities work. Scenario work is often subcontracted, leading to a constant lack of futures studies competence and thinking at the authorities. Another experience is that despite the difficulties, experts at the authorities did start thinking more in terms of opportunities with futures studies. A general conclusion from the work was that there is an interest and need for futures studies at the authorities in charge of the environmental objectives. The possibly most important conclusion from this project was that the authorities need to build up their own competences in futures studies.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2011. Vol. 43, no 1, 1-15 p.
Other Environmental Engineering
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-25756DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2010.02.005ISI: 000287888000001ScopusID: 2-s2.0-78650989846OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-25756DiVA: diva2:359707
QC 201011242010-10-292010-10-292012-08-23Bibliographically approved