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Components' Impact on Critical Transfer Section for Risk Based Transmission System Planning
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electromagnetic Engineering.
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES).
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electromagnetic Engineering.
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electromagnetic Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4763-9429
2009 (English)In: 2009 IEEE Bucharest PowerTech: Innovative Ideas Toward the Electrical Grid of the Future / [ed] Toma L; Otomega B, IEEE , 2009, 368-375 p.Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In the planning of the electrical transmission system it is of greatest concern to quantify the security margin for unwanted conditions in the system. This paper proposes an approach based on quantifying the risk of insufficient transmission capacity in bottlenecks in the system. Stresses in these critical transfer sections (CTS) provide a potential risk to corrective actions, or worst, load curtailments. The proposed method provides a general screening of component outages in order to find potential risk events for the CTS. Furthermore, the severity of each risk event is quantified based on the likelihood of the event and the consequence on the section's transmission capacity. The components' contribution to the risk of insufficient capacity in the CTS is then based on these risk events' severity. The method investigates several forecasted load levels during the year and consequently gives an input to a scheme for a risk based transmission system planning. The method is demonstrated on the reliability test system RBTS.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE , 2009. 368-375 p.
Keyword [en]
Power transmission reliability, power system security, reliability modeling, risk analysis, power system planning
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-25819ISI: 000276834600057Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-74949123727ISBN: 978-1-4244-2234-0 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-25819DiVA: diva2:359957
Conference
2009 IEEE Bucharest PowerTech: Innovative Ideas Toward the Electrical Grid of the Future; Bucharest; Romania; 28 June 2009 through 2 July 2009
Note

QC 20101101

Available from: 2010-11-01 Created: 2010-11-01 Last updated: 2014-10-09Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. On Reliability Methods Quantifying Risks to Transfer Capability in Electric Power Transmission Systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>On Reliability Methods Quantifying Risks to Transfer Capability in Electric Power Transmission Systems
2009 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

In the operation, planning and design of the transmission system it is of greatest concern to quantify the reliability security margin to unwanted conditions. The deterministic N-1 criterion has traditionally provided this security margin to reduce the consequences of severe conditions such as widespread blackouts. However, a deterministic criterion does not include the likelihood of different outage events. Moreover, experience from blackouts shows, e.g. in Sweden-Denmark September 2003, that the outages were not captured by the N-1 criterion. The question addressed in this thesis is how this system security margin can be quantified with probabilistic methods. A quantitative measure provides one valuable input to the decision-making process of selecting e.g. system expansions alternatives and maintenance actions in the planning and design phases. It is also beneficial for the operators in the control room to assess the associated security margin of existing and future network conditions.

This thesis presents a method that assesses each component's risk to an insufficient transfer capability in the transmission system. This shows on each component's importance to the system security margin. It provides a systematic analysis and ranking of outage events' risk of overloading critical transfer sections (CTS) in the system. The severity of each critical event is quantified in a risk index based on the likelihood of the event and the consequence of the section's transmission capacity. This enables a comparison of the risk of a frequent outage event with small CTS consequences, with a rare event with large consequences.

The developed approach has been applied for the generally known Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS). The result shows that the ranking of the components is highly dependent on the substation modelling and the studied system load level.

With the restriction of only evaluating the risks to the transfer capability in a few CTSs, the method provides a quantitative ranking of the potential risks to the system security margin at different load levels. Consequently, the developed reliability based approach provides information which could improve the deterministic criterion for transmission system planning.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH, 2009. 85 p.
Series
Trita-EE, ISSN 1653-5146 ; 2009:015
Keyword
Power transmission reliability, power system security, reliability modeling, risk analysis for power systems, power system planning
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-10258 (URN)978-91-7415-270-8 (ISBN)
Presentation
2009-05-15, H1, Teknikringen 33, Stockholm, 10:00 (Swedish)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2009-05-06 Created: 2009-04-24 Last updated: 2010-11-01Bibliographically approved
2. Identifying critical components for system reliability in power transmission systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Identifying critical components for system reliability in power transmission systems
2011 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Large interruptions of power supply in the transmission system have considerable impact on modern society. The goal for the transmission system operator (TSO) is to prevent and mitigate such events with optimal decisions in design, planning, operation and maintenance. Identifying critical power components for system reliability provides one important input to this decision-making.

This thesis develops quantitative component reliability importance indices applicable for identifying critical components in real transmission systems. Probabilistic models with component failure statistics are combined with detailed power system models evaluated with the AC power flow technique. In the presented method each system component is assigned three importance indices based on outage events expected probability and consequence to (i) reduced system security margin, (ii) interrupted load supply and (iii) disconnected generation units. By ranking components by each of the three interests, a more complete view of the risks to system reliability can be assessed than if, as traditionally, only (ii) is modelled. The impact on security margin is studied in well established critical transfer sections (CTS) supervised by the TSO. TSOs set the CTSs limits [MW] based on deterministic security criteria, with regard to thermal, voltage level, and system stability limits, and the CTSs' condition at post-contingency state is in the method used as an indicator of the system security margin.

The methodology is extended with three indices modified to quantify the component importance for common-cause events initiated by acts of sabotage.

The developed methods are applied on a significant part of the Great Britain transmission system, modelling 7000 components and 107 substation layouts. The study includes several load demand scenarios, 200 million initiating outage events and non-functioning protection equipment. The resulting component ranking provides an important input to the TSO's decision-making, and could be implemented as a complement to the existing deterministic N-1 criterion. With the methods applied a TSO can perform further and more detailed assessments on a few critical components in order to enhance system reliability for equipment failures and strengthen the system vulnerability against sabotage.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2011. 112 p.
Series
Trita-EE, ISSN 1653-5146 ; 2011:053
Keyword
transmission system reliability, component reliability importance index, Great Britain power system, power flow analysis, system adequacy, system security, system vulnerability
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-40389 (URN)978-91-7501-081-6 (ISBN)
Public defence
2011-10-07, K2, Teknikringen 28, KTH, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note
QC 20110920Available from: 2011-09-20 Created: 2011-09-14 Last updated: 2012-03-30Bibliographically approved

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