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A Reliability Model for Distribution Systems Incorporating Seasonal Variations in Severe Weather
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8189-2420
2011 (English)In: IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, ISSN 0885-8977, E-ISSN 0885-8877, Vol. 26, no 2, 910-919 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In distribution system planning and operation, accurate assessment of reliability performance is essential for making informed decisions. Also, performance-based regulation, accompanied by quality regulation, increases the need to understand and quantify differences in reliability performance between networks. Distribution system reliability performance indices exhibit stochastic behavior due to the impact of severe weather. In this paper, a new reliability model is presented which incorporates the stochastic nature of the severe weather intensity and duration to model variations in failure rate and restoration time. The model considers the impact of high winds and lightning and can be expanded to account for more types of severe weather. Furthermore, the modeling approach considers when severe weather is likely to occur during the year by using a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). The proposed model is validated and applied to a test system to estimate reliability indices. Results show that the stochasticity in weather has a great impact on the variance in the reliability indices.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2011. Vol. 26, no 2, 910-919 p.
Keyword [en]
Distribution system reliability assessment, sequential Monte Carlo simulation, weather modeling
National Category
Engineering and Technology
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-32626DOI: 10.1109/TPWRD.2010.2090363ISI: 000288758400045ScopusID: 2-s2.0-79953203514OAI: diva2:411664
QC 20110419Available from: 2011-04-19 Created: 2011-04-18 Last updated: 2011-12-27Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Risk-based methods for reliability investments in electric power distribution systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Risk-based methods for reliability investments in electric power distribution systems
2011 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Society relies more and more on a continuous supply of electricity. However, while underinvestments in reliability lead to an unacceptable number of power interruptions, overinvestments result in too high costs for society. To give incentives for a socioeconomically optimal level of reliability, quality regulations have been adopted in many European countries. These quality regulations imply new financial risks for the distribution system operator (DSO) since poor reliability can reduce the allowed revenue for the DSO and compensation may have to be paid to affected customers.This thesis develops a method for evaluating the incentives for reliability investments implied by different quality regulation designs. The method can be used to investigate whether socioeconomically beneficial projects are also beneficial for a profit-maximizing DSO subject to a particular quality regulation design. To investigate which reinvestment projects are preferable for society and a DSO, risk-based methods are developed. With these methods, the probability of power interruptions and the consequences of these can be simulated. The consequences of interruptions for the DSO will to a large extent depend on the quality regulation. The consequences for the customers, and hence also society, will depend on factors such as the interruption duration and time of occurrence. The proposed risk-based methods consider extreme outage events in the risk assessments by incorporating the impact of severe weather, estimating the full probability distribution of the total reliability cost, and formulating a risk-averse strategy. Results from case studies performed show that quality regulation design has a significant impact on reinvestment project profitability for a DSO. In order to adequately capture the financial risk that the DSO is exposed to, detailed risk-based methods, such as the ones developed in this thesis, are needed. Furthermore, when making investment decisions, a risk-averse strategy may clarify the benefits or drawbacks of a project that are hard to discover by looking only at the expected net present value.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2011. xii, 97 p.
Trita-EE, ISSN 1653-5146 ; 2011:040
Distribution system reliability, risk management, quality regulation design, customer interruption costs, weather modeling, Monte Carlo simulations
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-33815 (URN)978-91-7501-003-8 (ISBN)
Public defence
2011-06-15, D3, Lindstedtsvägen 5, KTH, Stockholm, 14:00 (English)
QC 20110530Available from: 2011-05-30 Created: 2011-05-18 Last updated: 2011-05-30Bibliographically approved

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Alvehag, KarinSöder, Lennart
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