Change search
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Warp effects on calculating interval probabilities
KTH, School of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Computer and Systems Sciences, DSV.
KTH, School of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Computer and Systems Sciences, DSV.
2009 (English)In: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, ISSN 0888-613X, E-ISSN 1873-4731, Vol. 50, no 9, 1360-1368 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

in real-life decision analysis, the probabilities and utilities of consequences are in general vague and imprecise. One way to model imprecise probabilities is to represent a probability with the interval between the lowest possible and the highest possible probability, respectively. However, there are disadvantages with this approach; one being that when an event has several possible outcomes, the distributions of belief in the different probabilities are heavily concentrated toward their centres of mass, meaning that much of the information of the original intervals are lost. Representing an imprecise probability with the distribution's centre of mass therefore in practice gives much the same result as using an interval, but a single number instead of an interval is computationally easier and avoids problems such as overlapping intervals. We demonstrate why second-order calculations add information when handling imprecise representations, as is the case of decision trees or probabilistic networks. We suggest a measure of belief density for such intervals. We also discuss properties applicable to general distributions. The results herein apply also to approaches which do not explicitly deal with second-order distributions, instead using only first-order concepts such as upper and lower bounds.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2009. Vol. 50, no 9, 1360-1368 p.
Keyword [en]
Decision analysis, Probability, Intervals, Second-order distributions
National Category
Computer Science
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-32705DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2009.04.008ISI: 000272341300004OAI: diva2:411749
QC 20110419Available from: 2011-04-19 Created: 2011-04-18 Last updated: 2011-04-19Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full text

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Danielson, MatsEkenberg, Love
By organisation
Computer and Systems Sciences, DSV
In the same journal
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Computer Science

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Altmetric score

Total: 22 hits
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link