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Considering extreme outage events in cost-benefit analysis of distribution systems
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8189-2420
2008 (English)In: Proceedings of Australasian Universities Power Engineering Conference (AUPEC), 2008Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

To find an acceptable level of reliability in distribution systems, cost-benefit analysis using customer interruption costs can be applied. In a case study of a test distribution system, investment in cables instead of overhead lines, aimed to increase reliability, is investigated. In addition to considering average values of reliability indices, tools for risk analysis in the financial industry, value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), are also used for the evaluation. Applying these tools allows for extreme events to be given more weight in the investment decision-making process. Even though these kind of events are very infrequent, the consequences are devastating and extreme cases should be included in cost-benefit analysis. By the help of VaR and CVaR the case study shows that cables can cause higher customer interruption costs for some load points in the system during extreme years.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2008.
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-33809Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-67649641412ISBN: 978-0-7334-2715-2 (print)ISBN: 978-142444162-4 OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-33809DiVA: diva2:417902
Conference
2008 Australasian Universities Power Engineering Conference, AUPEC 2008; Sydney, NSW; Australia; 14 December 2008 through 17 December 2008
Note

QC 20111222

Available from: 2011-05-18 Created: 2011-05-18 Last updated: 2014-10-24Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Risk-based methods for reliability investments in electric power distribution systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Risk-based methods for reliability investments in electric power distribution systems
2011 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Society relies more and more on a continuous supply of electricity. However, while underinvestments in reliability lead to an unacceptable number of power interruptions, overinvestments result in too high costs for society. To give incentives for a socioeconomically optimal level of reliability, quality regulations have been adopted in many European countries. These quality regulations imply new financial risks for the distribution system operator (DSO) since poor reliability can reduce the allowed revenue for the DSO and compensation may have to be paid to affected customers.This thesis develops a method for evaluating the incentives for reliability investments implied by different quality regulation designs. The method can be used to investigate whether socioeconomically beneficial projects are also beneficial for a profit-maximizing DSO subject to a particular quality regulation design. To investigate which reinvestment projects are preferable for society and a DSO, risk-based methods are developed. With these methods, the probability of power interruptions and the consequences of these can be simulated. The consequences of interruptions for the DSO will to a large extent depend on the quality regulation. The consequences for the customers, and hence also society, will depend on factors such as the interruption duration and time of occurrence. The proposed risk-based methods consider extreme outage events in the risk assessments by incorporating the impact of severe weather, estimating the full probability distribution of the total reliability cost, and formulating a risk-averse strategy. Results from case studies performed show that quality regulation design has a significant impact on reinvestment project profitability for a DSO. In order to adequately capture the financial risk that the DSO is exposed to, detailed risk-based methods, such as the ones developed in this thesis, are needed. Furthermore, when making investment decisions, a risk-averse strategy may clarify the benefits or drawbacks of a project that are hard to discover by looking only at the expected net present value.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2011. xii, 97 p.
Series
Trita-EE, ISSN 1653-5146 ; 2011:040
Keyword
Distribution system reliability, risk management, quality regulation design, customer interruption costs, weather modeling, Monte Carlo simulations
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-33815 (URN)978-91-7501-003-8 (ISBN)
Public defence
2011-06-15, D3, Lindstedtsvägen 5, KTH, Stockholm, 14:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note
QC 20110530Available from: 2011-05-30 Created: 2011-05-18 Last updated: 2011-05-30Bibliographically approved

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Söder, Lennart

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