The impact of risk modeling accuracy on cost-benefit analysis of distribution system reliability
2011 (English)In: Proceedings of the 17th Power System Computational Conference (PSCC), Power Systems Computation Conference ( PSCC ) , 2011Conference paper (Refereed)
This paper develops a new risk-based cost-benefit analysis method for distribution system reliability applications. In the conventional cost-benefit analysis, decisions are based on expected values which correspond to assuming that society is risk-neutral. Furthermore, input variables are assumed to be uncorrelated. In contrast to previous work this paper incorporates risk into the analysis by using time-sequential Monte Carlo simulations. By using the proposed method the impact that different risk strategies (risk-neutral/risk-averse) and risk models (non-time-varying/time-varying) have on the result of a cost-benefit analysis is investigated in a case study. Results show that when incorporating time-dependent failure rates, restoration times, customer interruption costs, and loads (correlated input data) a different reinvestment project is selected compared to when these time dependencies are ignored. This result holds regardless if decisions are made based on a risk-averse or a risk-neutral strategy.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Power Systems Computation Conference ( PSCC ) , 2011.
Cost-benefit analysis, Distribution system reliability, Monte Carlo simulations, Risk analysis, Cost effectiveness, Costs, Intelligent systems, Investments, Monte Carlo methods, Reliability, Reliability analysis, Risk assessment, Cost benefit analysis methods, Customer interruption costs, Expected values, Input variables, Risk strategies, Time dependent failure, Time sequential Monte Carlo Simulation, Cost benefit analysis
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-33812ScopusID: 2-s2.0-84943738118ISBN: 9789175012575OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-33812DiVA: diva2:417906
17th Power System Computational Conference, Stockholm Sweden, August 22-26, 2011
QC 201512232011-05-182011-05-182016-02-16Bibliographically approved