Change search
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of a moderately contagious disease
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Theoretical Physics, Theoretical Biological Physics.
2006 (English)In: BMC Medicine, ISSN 1741-7015, Vol. 4, 32- p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: Much research in epidemiology has been focused on evaluating conventional methods of control strategies in the event of an epidemic or pandemic. Travel restrictions are often suggested as an efficient way to reduce the spread of a contagious disease that threatens public health, but few papers have studied in depth the effects of travel restrictions. In this study, we investigated what effect different levels of travel restrictions might have on the speed and geographical spread of an outbreak of a disease similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Methods: We used a stochastic simulation model incorporating survey data of travel patterns between municipalities in Sweden collected over 3 years. We tested scenarios of travel restrictions in which travel over distances > 50 km and 20 km would be banned, taking into account different levels of compliance. Results: We found that a ban on journeys > 50 km would drastically reduce the speed and geographical spread of outbreaks, even when compliance is < 100%. The result was found to be robust for different rates of intermunicipality transmission intensities. Conclusion: This study supports travel restrictions as an effective way to mitigate the effect of a future disease outbreak.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2006. Vol. 4, 32- p.
National Category
Medical and Health Sciences
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-37467DOI: 10.1186/1741-7015-4-32ISI: 000244873000001PubMedID: 17166291ScopusID: 2-s2.0-33846655852OAI: diva2:433957
Available from: 2011-08-12 Created: 2011-08-12 Last updated: 2011-08-12Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full textPubMedScopus

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Camitz, Martin
By organisation
Theoretical Biological Physics
In the same journal
BMC Medicine
Medical and Health Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Altmetric score

Total: 22 hits
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link