MicroPox: a Large-scale and Spatially Explicit Microsimulation Model for Smallpox Transmission
2005 (English)In: The Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Health Sciences Simulation, 2005, 70-76 p.Conference paper (Refereed)
The motivation for this microsimulation model is the need to analyze and compare effects of implementing potential intervention policies against smallpox. By including contact patterns and spatial information extracted from governmental registers, we strive to make the simulation model more realistic than traditional transmission models, and thus better suited as a policy tool. MicroPox, the probabilistic large-scale microsimulation model described in this article uses real but anonymized data for the entire Swedish population. Since the unique data set contains family relations and workplace data for all Swedes, we have been able to incorporate many of their close social contacts, the type of contacts that are important for the transmission of smallpox. The level of detail of the data makes it possible to capture a large amount of the heterogeneity of the contact structure; most people have a small number of contacts, while a few have a large number. As the data set also contains geographic coordinates for all workplaces and dwellings, we were able to make the model spatially explicit. Besides a description of the model, the article also describes a preliminary experiment in which 50 initially infected persons spread the disease among 2,500,000 people, mainly located in Stockholm, Sweden.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2005. 70-76 p.
epidemiology, outbreak, smallpox, transmission
Health Care Service and Management, Health Policy and Services and Health Economy Computer Science
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-38912OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-38912DiVA: diva2:438423
15th International Conference on Health Sciences Simulation
QC 201109072011-09-022011-09-022013-02-25Bibliographically approved