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Component ranking in Great Britain transmission system based on either equipment failures or sabotage
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electromagnetic Engineering. (RCAM)
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electromagnetic Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4740-1832
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electromagnetic Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2964-7233
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electromagnetic Engineering.
2012 (English)In: Journal of Risk and Reliability, ISSN 1748-006X, E-ISSN 1748-0078, Vol. 226, no 1 (SI), 96-108 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In the long-term and operational planning of the power transmission system (PTS), one challenge is to identify components critical to system reliability. In this paper, the importance of each component for system reliability and vulnerability are quantified for two scenarios in a model of the Great Britain (GB) PTS. The scenarios are: (1) technical failures based on statistical data and (2) sabotage where the attacker has the ability to immobilize two contiguous components. In a novel method approach, the total importance of each component is based on three separate indices that include the system impact on (i) security margin, (ii) load, and (iii) generation. The final result of the GB system screening, including nearly 7000 components and 50 million outage events, is a ranking list indicating the 30 most critical components for each of the two scenarios. The results show that a component ranking that only includes risks of technical failures cannot be used to describe critical sabotage threats. Based on the results, the system operator can perform further and more detailed analysis on a few components and then make the necessary investments to improve the system reliability for equipment failures and strengthen the system vulnerability against sabotage.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sage Publications, 2012. Vol. 226, no 1 (SI), 96-108 p.
Keyword [en]
component importance indices; transmission system reliability; system vulnerability; system security; power flow analysis; Great Britain power system
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-40388DOI: 10.1177/1748006X11427372ISI: 000300053300010Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84864481895OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-40388DiVA: diva2:440936
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StandUp
Note

PROCEEDINGS OF THE INSTITUTION OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERS PART O. QC 20120305

Available from: 2011-09-14 Created: 2011-09-14 Last updated: 2017-12-08Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Identifying critical components for system reliability in power transmission systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Identifying critical components for system reliability in power transmission systems
2011 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Large interruptions of power supply in the transmission system have considerable impact on modern society. The goal for the transmission system operator (TSO) is to prevent and mitigate such events with optimal decisions in design, planning, operation and maintenance. Identifying critical power components for system reliability provides one important input to this decision-making.

This thesis develops quantitative component reliability importance indices applicable for identifying critical components in real transmission systems. Probabilistic models with component failure statistics are combined with detailed power system models evaluated with the AC power flow technique. In the presented method each system component is assigned three importance indices based on outage events expected probability and consequence to (i) reduced system security margin, (ii) interrupted load supply and (iii) disconnected generation units. By ranking components by each of the three interests, a more complete view of the risks to system reliability can be assessed than if, as traditionally, only (ii) is modelled. The impact on security margin is studied in well established critical transfer sections (CTS) supervised by the TSO. TSOs set the CTSs limits [MW] based on deterministic security criteria, with regard to thermal, voltage level, and system stability limits, and the CTSs' condition at post-contingency state is in the method used as an indicator of the system security margin.

The methodology is extended with three indices modified to quantify the component importance for common-cause events initiated by acts of sabotage.

The developed methods are applied on a significant part of the Great Britain transmission system, modelling 7000 components and 107 substation layouts. The study includes several load demand scenarios, 200 million initiating outage events and non-functioning protection equipment. The resulting component ranking provides an important input to the TSO's decision-making, and could be implemented as a complement to the existing deterministic N-1 criterion. With the methods applied a TSO can perform further and more detailed assessments on a few critical components in order to enhance system reliability for equipment failures and strengthen the system vulnerability against sabotage.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2011. 112 p.
Series
Trita-EE, ISSN 1653-5146 ; 2011:053
Keyword
transmission system reliability, component reliability importance index, Great Britain power system, power flow analysis, system adequacy, system security, system vulnerability
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-40389 (URN)978-91-7501-081-6 (ISBN)
Public defence
2011-10-07, K2, Teknikringen 28, KTH, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note
QC 20110920Available from: 2011-09-20 Created: 2011-09-14 Last updated: 2012-03-30Bibliographically approved

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Månsson, Daniel

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