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Impacts of time-varying cordon pricing: Validation and application of mesoscopic model for Stockholm
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Traffic and Logistics. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Traffic Research, CTR.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3738-9318
2013 (English)In: Transport Policy, ISSN 0967-070X, E-ISSN 1879-310X, Vol. 28, no SI, 51-60 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper uses a simulation model to compare traffic and welfare effects of changes to the charging schedule currently in use in Stockholm. In particular, a step toll is compared to its flat counterpart at two charging levels. The increments between steps are also increased in a peaked step toll scenario. Furthermore, results from simulation of the current toll ring are compared to real-world measurements in a first attempt to validate model predictions regarding impacts of a time-varying congestion charging scheme. In the model, car users have the possibility to respond to congestion charging by changing departure time, route or switch to public transport and travel times are calculated using mesoscopic traffic simulation. Validation shows that departure time choice adjustments because of congestion charging are overestimated by the model that is based on stated preference data. This warrants further research on discrepancies between stated and revealed adjustments to congestion charging. The current step toll reaches the highest social benefit estimate in model predictions, but differences in traffic effects between the current step toll and its flat counterpart are rather small. Furthermore, results show that demand changes occur in the model to a considerably greater extent for trips with low value of time. The differences in welfare effects is for that reason large for different trip purposes, indicating the importance of accounting for heterogeneous trips when modelling effects of congestion charges.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Pergamon Press, 2013. Vol. 28, no SI, 51-60 p.
Keyword [en]
Congestion charging, Departure time choice, Time-varying charges, Schedule flexibility, Traffic simulation
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-43718DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2011.06.006ISI: 000321405400006Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84878636686OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-43718DiVA: diva2:448581
Projects
Avenir
Funder
TrenOp, Transport Research Environment with Novel Perspectives
Note

QC 20130812

Available from: 2011-10-17 Created: 2011-10-17 Last updated: 2017-12-08Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Congestion Charging in Urban Networks: Modelling Issues and Simulated Effects
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Congestion Charging in Urban Networks: Modelling Issues and Simulated Effects
2011 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

One of the major challenges cities face today, in their development towards sustainable urban areas, is the need for an efficient and environmentally friendly transport system. This transport system should manage to tie together the city without strong adverse impact on urban environment, air-quality and climate change. The specialized labour (and leisure) market, typical of a large urban area, exaggerates the need for efficient travel, as it is increasingly difficult to live and work within short distances.   

The use of demand management tools has become more frequent in transport planning with this development towards more sustainable cities. Whereas investing in new capacity was previously the main response to increased demand for travel, there is a much broader range of policies in use today. One of these demand management tools is congestion charging. Singapore was first to implement congestion charging and during the last decade it was followed by London and Stockholm, with increasing support from the citizens as a consequence. Many other cities have performed feasibility studies for introduction of congestion charging. 

The development of transport models for prediction of demand management tools, such as congestion charging, has however not been able to keep up with this change in kind of policy. Transport models that were developed for prediction and evaluation of infrastructure investments, such as new motorways, are often used to forecast effects of policies aimed at managing demand, which too often results in poor prediction.

This thesis focuses on the needs for modelling of congestion charging. The state-of-practice models used before implementation in Singapore, London and Stockholm are reviewed, as well as more advanced dynamic models developed for prediction of congestion charging and other demand management tools. A number of gaps in the modelling of congestion charging are described and a new model called SILVESTER is developed, which closes some of these gaps. In particular, SILVESTER involves dynamic mesoscopic modelling of traffic flows, flexible departure times and users with heterogeneous preferences.

The thesis describes the implementation of SILVESTER and considers and compares different methods of demand aggregation in order to reduce run-time of the large-scale dynamic model (Paper I). It also describes how preferred departure times of road users can be determined in calibration such that consistency exists between the departure time choice model and dynamic traffic flows which are input to assignment (Paper II). The unique implementation of congestion charging in Stockholm gives the possibility to validate SILVESTER on real-world measurement of reductions in traffic flow and behavioural adjustments to the charges (Paper III). SILVESTER is then used to analyse several modified versions of the Stockholm congestion charging scheme and to compare welfare and equity effects of the different schemes. It is shown that the welfare of the current scheme could be improved if charges were allowed to differ by location and driving direction (Paper IV). It is shown that the benefits of congestion charges calculated using SILVESTER are greater than the benefits calculated with a static model. Finally, the reasons for the greater benefits are investigated (Paper V).

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2011. x, 59 p.
Series
Trita-TEC-PHD, ISSN 1653-4468 ; 11:003
Keyword
Transport Modelling, Congestion Charging, Departure Time Choice, Dynamic Traffic Simulation, Welfare Effects, Equity
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-43732 (URN)978-91-85539-79-6 (ISBN)
Public defence
2011-11-09, F3, Lindstedsvägen 26, KTH, Stockholm, 10:30 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
TrenOp, Transport Research Environment with Novel Perspectives
Note
QC 20111019Available from: 2011-10-19 Created: 2011-10-18 Last updated: 2012-06-12Bibliographically approved

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