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Modelling Reliability as Expected Lateness: A Schedule-Based Approach for User Benefit Analysis
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1360-4906
2009 (English)In: 2009 Proceedings European Transport Conference, 2009Conference paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

As evidenced by recent studies, travel time reliability forms a substantial portion of traveler preferences and of the costs or benefits of transport policies. This paper describes how new theoretical developments have provided the means to estimate the value of travel time reliability improvements under schedule-theoretic traveler preferences at the same time. In order to help bring these theories into practice, tools are needed to predict the relevant features of a travel time distribution. This paper has examined some empirical data for “mean lateness”, an important component of travel time reliability under scheduling behavior, and estimated a model of the absolute mean lateness that can be used in conjunction with a model of mean travel times to produce a complete valuation. The findings show that the model, while showing significant results, only partially explains variations in mean lateness, and can be subject to large bias in certain cases.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
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Transport Systems and Logistics
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-71646OAI: diva2:486853
European Transport Conference, 2009. Leiden Leeuwenhorst Conference Centre, Netherlands. 2009-10-5 - 2009-10-7
TSC import 408 2012-01-30. QC 20120502Available from: 2012-01-31 Created: 2012-01-31 Last updated: 2012-05-02Bibliographically approved

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Franklin, Joel
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