Change search
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Probability of Failure for Concrete Gravity Dams for Sliding Failure - Proposal to solution for the eleventh ICOLD Benchmark workshop
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Soil and Rock Mechanics.
2012 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Safety of dams can be evaluated based on the risk analysis methodologies that accounts for estimation of the risks associated to the dam-reservoir system. For this purpose it is important to estimate the probability of load events and probability of failure for several failure modes. The following thesis emphasises on estimation of the probability of one specific failure mode, i.e. “sliding failure” for a concrete gravity dam. The main idea behind this thesis was to analyse the estimation of the probability of sliding failure of an existing dam by obtaining the relationships among the different load events, factors of safety associated to those events and the probability of failure estimated using numerical simulation techniques together with different reliability methods. The analysed dam is taken from theme C of the eleventh ICOLD Benchmark workshop on numerical analysis of dams. The thesis covers the methodology for estimating the probability of failure of a given concrete gravity dam with five water levels, considering the sliding failure mode along the dam-foundation interface along with the estimation of factors of safety for each water level and with two different drainage conditions. First order second moment Taylor’s

Series Approximation is being used as Level 2 reliability method and Monte Carlo simulation as Level 3 reliability method to estimate the probability of failure against sliding of the dam.

Conclusions are drawn in the end by comparing the results obtained from factor of safety estimation and probability of failure for each water level and drainage condition, followed by suggestions for further research in the context of sliding stability of concrete dams.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2012. , 104 p.
Examensarbete Jord- och bergmekanik, ISSN 1652-599X ; 12-08
Keyword [en]
Concrete Gravity dams, Stability Analyses, Factor of safety, probability of failure
National Category
Civil Engineering
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-100538OAI: diva2:543834
Subject / course
Soil and Rock Mechanics
Available from: 2012-08-10 Created: 2012-08-10 Last updated: 2012-08-10Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(1479 kB)11199 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 1479 kBChecksum SHA-512
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

By organisation
Soil and Rock Mechanics
Civil Engineering

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 11199 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Total: 384 hits
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link