North African Power Pool: Least Cost Energy Supply Model for Multiple Scenario Analysis
Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Energy is, and has always been, at the very centre of the development of human societies. This simple statement now comes as no surprise to a vast majority of people to the extent that access to and use of energy in the western world is considered as a given. Ever present, energy provides services that we take for granted from straightforward transportation through to clothing, building, food supply etc. This commodity is such a fundamental pillar to our way of life and global stability that it is often an important focus of governmental efforts worldwide. Nevertheless many parts of the developing world, specifically throughout the African continent, lack the knowledge and the resources to lay economically sound and technically efficient plans for developing their energy systems.
As part of a larger effort for modelling the African continent and its energy system as a whole, this work focuses on the study of the North African Power Pool and it’s possible scenarios for future development. By representing the current system using a cost based optimisation tool called MESSAGE, the goal is to study the various pathways to meeting future national demand and their implications in terms of technological investment. Conducted collaboratively between KTHs’ Department of Energy Systems Analysis (DESA) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), this work has a multiple focus.
First to reveal the trends that will take form when considering current cost and technological performance data. Through populating the model structure with the relevant public domain technological data and running iterations through to 2050 based on historical system capacity knowledge, the optimisation process draws the “natural” development pathway for each country and the region as a whole while providing the basis for scenario comparison.
Second, to study economically viable penetration levels of renewable technologies within these future energy systems. Using a small range of scenarios that modify the boundaries of the solution space for the optimisation process (e.g. progressive introduction of a CO2 tax) multiple pathway options are revealed and compared to the baseline scenario. Specific interest is given the economic feasibility of each solution and the assumptions that they translate in multiple areas such as e.g. policy making.
Finally, to point out the advantages of a regional grid with increased trade able to smooth consumption peaks by making more efficient use of each country’s individual resources. Managed through scenario description, this point refers to achieving such feats as an integrated Mediterranean grid that would empower large resource displacements such as the one at the heart of the DESERTEC project.
Extra added value is also achieved through supplying a final modelling package: an open source dataset as well as a functional model that can empower local governments to conduct their own analyses of the situation.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2012. , 120 p.
Energy System, Electricity, Modelling, MESSAGE, Africa, Power Pool, Renewable Energy
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-101450OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-101450DiVA: diva2:547747
Master of Science - Engineeering Physics
Howells, Mark, Professor
Howells, Mark, Professor