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A Sensitivity Analysis of Short-Term Hydropower Planning Using Stochastic Programming
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6000-9363
2012 (English)In: Power and Energy Society General Meeting, 2012 IEEE, IEEE , 2012, 6344769- p.Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Huge amount of uncertainties are being introduced to the power market because of the ongoing growth in the renewable energy sources like wind and solar power. The intermittent nature of these power sources increases the volatility of the day-ahead market prices. Therefore, improving planning tools and constructing an optimal bidding strategy to the day-ahead market is an essential task for the price-taker hydropower producer. This paper applies an optimal bidding model under the uncertainties of the day-ahead market prices and the water inflow level. Specifically, the model is built using a two-stage stochastic mixed integer linear programming approach. The uncertainties are handled by generating scenarios based on historical data. The model is tested by studying three reservoir test system. Profound sensitivity analysis is provided, in terms of volatility in day-ahead market prices and water inflow level as well as in terms of water opportunity cost and initial volume of the reservoir. Based on the comparison of the stochastic and corresponding deterministic problems, the result aims to show the impact of modeling the uncertainties explicitly.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE , 2012. 6344769- p.
Series
IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting : [proceedings], ISSN 1944-9925
Keyword [en]
Stochastic programming, optimal bidding, dayahead market, scenario generation
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-101694DOI: 10.1109/PESGM.2012.6344769ISI: 000312493701093Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84870579563ISBN: 978-146732727-5 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-101694DiVA: diva2:548650
Conference
2012 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, PES 2012;San Diego, CA; 22 July 2012 through 26 July 2012
Note

QC 20121112

Available from: 2012-11-12 Created: 2012-08-31 Last updated: 2013-09-03Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

FullPaper(359 kB)333 downloads
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Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

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Amelin, Mikael

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CiteExportLink to record
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