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When And Where Next: Individual Mobility Prediction
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Geodesy and Geoinformatics.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1164-8403
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Geodesy and Geoinformatics.
2012 (English)Conference paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The ability to predict when an individual mobile user will leave his current location and where we will move next enables a myriad of qualitatively different Location-Based Services (LBSes) and applications. To this extent, the present paper proposes a statistical method that explicitly performs these related temporal and spatial prediction tasks in three continuous, sequential phases. In the First phase, the method continuously extracts grid-based staytime statistics from the GPS coordinate stream of the location-aware mobile device of the user. In the second phase, from the grid-based staytime statistics, the method periodically extracts and manages regions that the user frequently visits. Finally, in the third phase, from the stream of region-visits, the method continuously estimates parameters for an inhomogeneous continuous-time Markov model and in a continuous fashion predicts when the user will leave his current region and where he will move next. Empirical evaluations, using a number of long, real world trajectories from the Geo-Life data set, show that the proposed method outperforms a state-of-the-art, rule-based trajectory predictor both in terms of temporal and spatial prediction accuracy.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ACM Press, 2012.
Keyword [en]
spatio-temporal data mining, mobility patterns, location prediction, inhomogeneous continuous-time Markov model
National Category
Computer Science
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-103247DOI: 10.1145/2442810.2442821ScopusID: 2-s2.0-84875182068OAI: diva2:559258
MobiGIS 2012 The First ACM SIGSPATIAL International Workshop on Mobile Geographical Information Systems, November 6, 2012, Redondo Beach, CA, USA

QC 20121113

Available from: 2012-11-13 Created: 2012-10-08 Last updated: 2013-10-11Bibliographically approved

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ReferencesLink to record
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