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Modelling the effect of transit supply and price structure on mode choice and route choice
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4531-8659
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
2011 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This paper develops a new mode choice and transit route choice model for work trips by either car or transit. In contrast to the conventional regional traffic models used for transportation planning in Sweden, the model accounts for the fact that the value of time varies within a population of travellers making a trip with the same purpose and the fact that the price can differ between different transit lines (bus, regional trains, etc.). A mixed binomial logit (MXL) model with a lognormally distributed cost parameter has been estimated for the mode choice. The MXL specification makes it possible to capture some of the variation in the value of time. The transit route choice model rests on the assumption that transit commuters purchase travel passes that are valid for a certain time period, e.g. a month. The travel pass then allows the traveller to use a certain set of transit lines, while others are not available. For the mode choice, the traveller compares travel cost and time with the chosen pass with the travel cost and time by car. The results from performed analyses indicate that if the interest is in overall mode share and overall travel flows, the conventional method in Swedish transport modelling will suffice. However, if the interest is more detailed, for example concerning boardings and ticket income from a certain transit line, or the total benefit of a price change, the model developed in this paper will give more reliable results.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Glasgow, UK, 2011.
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-115987OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-115987DiVA: diva2:588568
Conference
European Transport conference 2011
Note

TSC import 2112 2013-01-15 QC 20130524

Available from: 2013-01-15 Created: 2013-01-15 Last updated: 2016-06-13Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Three essays on transport CBA uncertainty
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Three essays on transport CBA uncertainty
2015 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) has for a long time been used in transport planning, but it is often questioned. One main argument against CBA is that the results depend largely on assumptions regarding one or a few input factors, as for example the future fuel price or valuation of CO2 emissions.

The three papers included in this thesis investigate some aspects of uncertainty in transport CBA calculations. The two first papers explore how changes in input data assumptions affect the CBA ranking of six rail and road investments in Stockholm. The first paper deals with the effect of different land-use assumptions while the second deals with the influence of economic growth, driving cost and public transport fare. The third paper investigates how alternative formulations of the public transport mode choice and route choice affect travel flows, ticket revenues and consumer surplus. These are important factors previously known to affect CBA results.

The findings of the first two papers suggest that CBA results are robust concerning different land-use scenarios and single input factors. No change in rank between a road and a rail object is observed in the performed model calculations, and only one change between two road objects. The fact that CBA results seem robust regarding input assumptions supports the use CBA as a tool for selecting transport investments. The results in the third paper indicate that if there is detailed interest in, for example, number of boardings and ticket income from a certain transit line, or the total benefit of a price change, a more detailed formulation of the public transport mode choice and route choice will provide more reliable results. On the other hand, this formulation requires substantially more data on the transit line and price structure than the conventional formulation used in Swedish transport planning, especially in areas with many different pricing systems.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2015. 21 p.
Series
TRITA-TSC-LIC, ISSN 1653-445X ; 15-001
Keyword
Cost-Benefit Analysis, Transport planning, Land-use planning
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-163355 (URN)978-91-87353-69-7 (ISBN)
Presentation
2015-05-08, Sal L31, Drottning Kristinas Väg 30, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC 20150414

Available from: 2015-04-14 Created: 2015-03-31 Last updated: 2015-04-14Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

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Other links

https://abstracts.aetransport.org/paper/index/id/3748/confid/17

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Engelson, Leonid

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