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Towards an uncertainty aware short-term travel time prediction using GPS bus data: Case study in Dublin
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Traffic and Logistics.
2012 (English)In: Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC), 2012 15th International IEEE Conference on, IEEE , 2012, 1620-1625 p.Conference paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In this paper we propose and study the performances of a bus travel times prediction model using real bus location data from the city of Dublin. The proposed prediction model uses a modified version of the K-Nearest Neighbors algorithm, KNN, algorithm and exhibits a significant improvement over the baseline KNN. We also investigate the benefits of decomposing travel times in three components: running time, dwell time at bus stops and time stopped at traffic lights. We discuss that most of the uncertainty on the travel times comes from time spent at bus stops and traffic lights, and prediction of running time only is much improved due to the reduced uncertainty at bus stops and traffic lights. Finally we show the need of a prediction algorithm for time spent at bus stops and traffic lights that added to the prediction of running time would allow for an uncertainty aware travel time predictor.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE , 2012. 1620-1625 p.
, IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems-ITSC, ISSN 2153-0009
Keyword [en]
Bus stop, Dwell time, K-nearest neighbors, Location data, Prediction algorithms, Prediction model, Running time, Three component, Time spent, Traffic light, Travel time prediction, Algorithms, Bus terminals, Intelligent systems, Mathematical models, Travel time, Bus transportation
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-116656DOI: 10.1109/ITSC.2012.6338633ISI: 000312599600269ScopusID: 2-s2.0-84871217509ISBN: 978-146733064-0OAI: diva2:600024
2012 15th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2012, 16 September 2012 through 19 September 2012, Anchorage, AK

QC 20130123

Available from: 2013-01-23 Created: 2013-01-22 Last updated: 2013-09-06Bibliographically approved

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Trigueiro Baptista, Arthur
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