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The Risk-Return Tradeoff in a Hedged, Client Driven Trading Portfolio
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Industrial Economics and Management (Dept.).
2013 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Relationen Mellan Risk och Avkastning i en Hedgead, Klientdriven Tradingportfölj (English)
Abstract [en]

In post-financial crisis times, new legislation in combination with banks’ changed risk aversion has to a great extent changed the proprietary trading to client driven trading, i.e. market making or client facilitation. This type of trading complicates the risk-return dynamics, as the goal is often to minimize risk and achieve profitable commission revenues. This thesis aims to disclose the risk-return tradeoff in a client driven trading environment. This is done by investigating the conditional relation between risk and realized return. As opposed from many studies which proxy the risk with beta or variance, I use a delta-gamma Value at Risk model as the risk proxy, which I also backtest. For the return proxy, I use three different measures; P&L, commission revenues and the sum of these two. A positive tradeoff exists if (i) the return is equally negatively dependent on the risk if the ex post return is negative, as it is positively dependent on the risk if the ex post return is positive and (ii) the average return is significantly positive. For three different client driven trading portfolios tested, I found a positive risk-return tradeoff in one portfolio, between the P&L plus commission revenues and the Value at Risk. However, since a symmetrical conditional relationship between risk and P&L plus commission revenues was found in all portfolios, and the average return was positive, the positive tradeoff would have existed if the average return would have been significantly positive. On the other hand, one could argue that the tradeoff exists, but is not significant. No relation between risk and commission revenues was found. A probable cause to this is the hedging strategies, which would be an interesting topic for further research. 

Abstract [sv]

I tiden efter finanskrisen har nya regelverk i kombination med bankers förändrade riskaptit till stor del förändrat den proprietära handeln till klientdriven handel, i.e. ”market making” eller förenklad handel för kund. Denna typ av handel komplicerar dynamiken mellan risk och avkastning, då målet ofta är att minimera risk och nå lönsamma kommissionsintäkter. Denna uppsats ämnar påvisa förhållandet mellan risk och avkastning i en klientdriven handelsmiljö. Detta görs genom att undersöka den betingade relationen mellan risk och realiserad avkastning. Till skillnad från andra studier som använder beta eller varians som riskmått, använder jag en delta-gamma Value at Risk-modell som jag också backtestar. Som avkastningsmått, använder jag tre olika mått; P&L, kommissionsintäkter samt summan av dessa två. En positiv belöning för att bära risk existerar om (i) avkastningen är lika negativt beroende av risken om den realiserade avkastningen är negativ, som den är positivt beroende av risken om den realiserade avkastningen är positiv och (ii) medelvärdet på avkastningen är signifikant positiv. För tre olika klientdrivna portföljer som testats, hittades en positiv belöning för att bära risk endast i en portfölj, mellan P&L plus kommissionsintäkter och Value at Risk. Emellertid, eftersom en symmetrisk systematisk betingad relation mellan risk och P&L plus kommissionsintäkter hittades i alla portföljer, och medelavkastningen var positiv, skulle den positiva belöningen ha funnits om medelavkastningen varit signifikant positiv. Å andra sidan skulle jag kunna hävda att den positiva belöningen finns, men inte är signifikant. Ingen relation mellan risk och kommissionsintäkter hittades. En trolig orsak till detta är hedgnings-strategierna, vilket vore ett intressant ämne för fortsatt forskning. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013. , 76 p.
Series
Examensarbete INDEK, 2013:36
Keyword [en]
DiVA, published, student thesis, Client driven trading, Risk-Return tradeoff, Delta-gamma Value-at-Risk, IMA, Backtesting
National Category
Mathematical Analysis
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-123389OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-123389DiVA: diva2:626029
External cooperation
Carnegie Investment Bank AB
Subject / course
Finance
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering - Industrial Engineering and Management
Presentation
2013-05-28, Sing-Sing 443, Lindstedtsvägen, Stockholm, 14:40 (Swedish)
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2013-06-17 Created: 2013-06-06 Last updated: 2013-06-17Bibliographically approved

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