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The Future of Global Steel Production: An Energy and Climate Modelling Exercise using ETSAP-TIAM and SAAM
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3618-1259
VITO, Mol, Belgium and JRC, Petten, The Netherlands.
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7123-1824
2013 (English)Conference paper, Abstract (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This paper addresses the question of how climate change mitigation policies may influence future iron and steel technology deployment and scrap use using ETSAP-TIAM and a newly developed Scrap Availability Assessment Model (SAAM). Theoretically, a 90% recycling rate of steel is possible with low energy requirements and reduced CO2 emissions. However, even if all available scrap is used, at a global level, production from iron ore would still be needed in the long-term. Saturation of the per capita cumulative in-use of steel products may cause the total steel demand to stagnate as from 2040 - 2060. Even in this scenario, half of the steel production is iron ore based in 2050. Furthermore, hydrogen based steel becomes the primary technology option together with production from scrap in a scenario where Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is not available. A climate policy to keep radiative forcing within the 3.5 W/m2 limit that allows for CCS doubles the price of iron, makes the price of scrap go up with 50% and increases the price of steel from lower than 600 USD per tonne to some 800 USD per tonne. However, a large share of these price increases is due to carbon prices rather than additional production costs. We conclude that global climate change mitigation policies do not impact the use of scrap, whereas they do have an impact on technology choice for steel production. The results on technology choice indicated that energy efficiency improvements of current processes will not be enough and that there is a need for developing new techniques with lower climate impact.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
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Energy Systems
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-123962OAI: diva2:631416
32nd International Energy Workshop, 19-21 June 2013, Paris, France

QC 20140331

This study was developed within the scope of the Energy Systems Analysis Agency (ESA2). ESA2 is an independent consortium of renowned universities and research institutions from five European countries providing qualified decision support for public and private clients in areas related to energy and environmental policy. ESA2 originated from KIC InnoEnergy at the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT). More information is available at

Available from: 2013-06-20 Created: 2013-06-20 Last updated: 2016-04-19Bibliographically approved

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