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Approaching wind power forecast deviations with internal ex-ante self-balancing
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2016-1739
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6000-9363
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
2013 (English)In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 57, 106-115 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Short-term variations in wind power generation make real-time balancing of load and generation a more challenging task for the Transmission System Operator (TSO). One issue of interest that could facilitate the efficient integration of wind power is to shift larger parts of the balancing responsibility from the TSO to the power generating companies. The idea is to reduce the real-time balancing need for the TSO by demanding power generating companies to minimise their expected imbalances. To comply with this, power generating companies can re-schedule their production based on updated production forecasts. As a key of the contribution, this paper analyses internal ex-ante self-balancing, where this re-scheduling is done shortly before the period of delivery and internally within each power generating company. To quantify the value of such a more distributed balancing responsibility, a model has been developed which consists of a sequence of optimisation models. Then, possible trading decisions of power generating companies are evaluated in different situations. This is based on a hydro-thermal generation portfolio within the framework of the Nordic electricity market.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2013. Vol. 57, 106-115 p.
Keyword [en]
Balancing, Electricity market, Nordic power system, Re-scheduling, Stochastic generation, Wind power integration
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-124351DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.03.033ISI: 000323355600014Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84880702971OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-124351DiVA: diva2:634162
Projects
Elektra 36141: Korttidsplanering av vatten-värmekraftsystem vid stora mängder vindkraft: System-perspektivet
Note

QC 20150624

Available from: 2013-06-28 Created: 2013-06-28 Last updated: 2017-08-16Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Design of Electricity Markets for Efficient Balancing of Wind Power Generation
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Design of Electricity Markets for Efficient Balancing of Wind Power Generation
2015 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Deploying wind power to a larger extent is one solution to reduce negative environmental impacts of electric power supply. However, various challenges are connected with increasing wind power penetration levels. From the perspective of transmission system operators, this includes balancing of varying as well as - to some extent - uncertain generation levels. From the perspective of power generating companies, changes in the generation mix will affect the market's merit order and, hence, their profits. This thesis focuses on provision and use of flexibility in the Nordic electricity market.

First, this thesis studies wind power variations and accuracy of wind power forecasts in Sweden using statistical methods. Even though today’s wind penetration levels are still low in Sweden, power systems and electricity markets have to cope with these characteristics of variations and forecast errors to a larger extent in future.

Second, it investigates to which extent an increased exchange and use of flexibility that is available in the intraday time-frame could efficiently facilitate system balancing and whether this would also be profitable from the power generating companies' perspective. Here, a simulation model is developed that reflects important aspects of production planning and trading decisions in the intraday time-frame. In a first case study, it is shown that the benefits of internal rescheduling strongly depend on the costs to adjust production plans in the intraday time-frame as compared to real-time. In a second case study, it becomes evident that trading flexibility in the intraday time-frame can reduce the need for system balancing more efficiently than internal rescheduling within each balance responsible party.

Motivated by the positive gains of intraday trading and the challenge of appropriately modelling continuous intraday markets, trading activity and price development on Elbas is investigated. The results provide insights into trading behaviour on a continuous intraday market and show that trading is not always in accordance to the power system's physical situation. To the extent to which better information and adaptations in the market design could improve the market participants' base for trading decisions, policy recommendations and further research questions areas suggested.

Abstract [sv]

Att använda vindkraft i en större utsträckning är en möjlighet att minska elproduktionens negativa miljöpåverkan. Det finns dock också olika utmaningar med stora mängder vindkraft. Från ett systemperspektiv gäller det till exempel att hålla balansen mellan tillförsel och konsumtion av el. Från elproducenternas perspektiv bör vindkraftens påverkan på elmarknaden nämnas eftersom det påverka aktörernas vinster. Avhandlingen titta närmare in i hur man kan få tillgång till mer flexibilitet på produktionssidan.

Avhandlingen består av tre delar. För det första undersöks variationer och prognosfel av vindkraft i Sverige med hjälp av statistiska metoder. Även om andel vindkraft hittills är låg i Sverige, behöver elsystemet och elmarknader i framtiden hantera samma egenskaper av själva variationer och prognosfel som idag men i en större utsträckning.

För det andra undersöks hur den flexibiliteten som finns i tidshorisonten några timmar innan leveranstimmen kan utnyttjas för att integrera vindkraften på ett sätt som är både fördelaktigt från systemets och från aktörernas perspektiv. Undersökningen sker med hjälp av en simuleringsmodell som omfattar viktiga delar i produktionsplanering och intradayhandel. I en fallstudie uppvisas att vinster av intern omplanering är i högsta grad beroende på kostnadsskillnaden mellan omplanering några timmar innan leveranstimmen och anpassning av körscheman under själva leveranstimmen. Resultat av ytterligare en fallstudie uppvisar att det är betydligt billigare och mer effektivt att använda intradayhandel istället för intern omplanering för att utnyttja den befintliga flexibiliteten och för att reducera obalanser som systemoperatörer annars behöver ta hand om under leveranstimmen.

Detta är en anledning till att undersöka handelsmönster på Elbas som är en intradaymarknad med kontinuerlig handel. En annan anledning till den här tredje delen är utmaningarna i att modellera kontinuerlig intradayhandel. Studien beskriver handelsaktiviteten på Elbas och hur priserna utvecklas under handelstiden. Ett resultat är att handeln inte alltid återspeglar den fysiska situationen i elsystemet. I den utsträckningen som ett snabbare informationsflöde och förändringar i marknadsdesignen kunde förbättrar aktörernas underlag för intradayhandel, föreslås förbättringar och öppna forskningsfrågor.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2015. viii, 84 p.
Series
TRITA-EE, ISSN 1653-5146 ; 2015:031
Keyword
wind power variations, forecast errors, market design, adjustment markets, trading decisions, continuous intraday trading, variable renewable energy
National Category
Energy Systems
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-171063 (URN)978-91-7595-652-7 (ISBN)
Public defence
2015-10-09, H1, Teknikringen 33, KTH, Stockholm, 10:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Projects
Elektra 36141: Korttidsplanering av vatten-värmekraftsystem vid stora mängder vindkraft: System-perspektivet
Note

QC 20150911

Available from: 2015-09-11 Created: 2015-07-14 Last updated: 2015-09-11Bibliographically approved

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