Change search
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Analyzing the performance of a time-dependent probabilistic approach for bulk network reliability assessment
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
2013 (English)In: Electric power systems research, ISSN 0378-7796, Vol. 104, 156-163 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The conventional sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) considers states in which a component is both in and out of service. Sequential MCS has been applied in different analyses whilst considering both symmetrical and asymmetrical probability distributions. The Beta distribution is however not one of the commonly recommended distributions for use in sequential MCS due to the complexity in deriving its inverse transform. A new sequential MCS technique that applies the Beta distribution is proposed in this paper. The technique is a time-dependent probabilistic approach (TDPA) that uses probability density functions (PDFs) to characterize stochastic network parameters in terms of their season- and time-dependency and simulates the component down (failure) states. The effect of this simulation approach on reliability calculations is analyzed using a published test network. The impact of dispersion and skewness in PDF based input models on a reliability analysis is also investigated. The results show that the TDPA can replicate the conventional sequential MCS analysis. The TDPA computation is also significantly faster. The simulation results of the TDPA also show that dispersion and skewness of component failure rate PDFs significantly influence a reliability analysis.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013. Vol. 104, 156-163 p.
Keyword [en]
Bulk network reliability, Sequential Monte Carlo Simulations, Probabilistic modelling, Beta distribution
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-131225DOI: 10.1016/j.epsr.2013.06.016ISI: 000324358200020ScopusID: 2-s2.0-84880857421OAI: diva2:655346

QC 20131011

Available from: 2013-10-11 Created: 2013-10-10 Last updated: 2013-10-11Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Alvehag, Karin
By organisation
Electric Power Systems
In the same journal
Electric power systems research
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Altmetric score

Total: 27 hits
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link