The impact of a congestion charging exemption scheme on the demand for low-emission vehicles
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
To stimulate sales of Low-Emission Vehicles (LEVs) it was decided to exempt some of these automobiles from Stockholm’s congestion charge. In this paper the effect this policy had on the demand for LEVs is estimated by simulating different policy scenarios using the results of a multinomial logit model (MNL). This model was based upon owner-specific demographics merged with vehicle registry data for all new private vehicles registered in Stockholm county during 2008. Through this process the characteristics of individuals who had a higher propensity towards purchasing an exempt LEV were identified. The most significant characteristics included inter-cordon residency (positive), distance of home from cordon boundary (negative), and commuting across the cordon boundary (positive). Inter-cordon residents commuting across the boundary had the highest propensity towards purchasing an exempt LEV. Owners under the age of 30 preferred low CO2 petrol/diesel vehicles, whilst those over 30 preferred electric vehicles. In terms of electric vehicles, those living within the cordon had the highest propensity towards this alternative. By calculating vehicle shares from the MNL model, and comparing these with a simulated scenario where the congestion charging exemption was inactive, the policy was found to have a substantial effect, increasing the share of exempt LEVs in Stockholm by 1.9% to a total share of 18.9% (13.1% increase for inter-cordon residents commuting over the boundary; 5.0% increase for outer city residents commuting over the boundary). In other words, the exemption policy was found to have increased LEV purchases in Stockholm, during 2008, by approximately 550 vehicles.
Low-Emission Vehicles; Environmental Vehicles; Green Vehicles; Vehicle Choice; Discrete Choice Modelling; Congestion Charging; Logit Model
Transport Systems and Logistics
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-131294OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-131294DiVA: diva2:655471
QS 20132013-10-112013-10-112013-10-25Bibliographically approved