Transitioning to low-emission vehicles: an analysis of the potential rebound effects and subsequent impact upon emissions
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
This paper examines the annual distances driven between demographically-similar, privately-owned low-emission vehicle (LEV) and conventional vehicle owners in Stockholm during 2008. This analysis was used to assess the potential rebound effects of using financial incentives to encourage a transition in the vehicle fleet from conventional vehicles to LEVs. The potential rebound effects and differences in emissions due to the transition have been estimated, along with an assessment of the effect of an exemption for LEVs from Stockholm’s congestion charging scheme, upon annual distance travelled. The analysis used vehicle registry data merged with owner-specific demographics, including home-work locations. A logistic regression was performed on these demographics to construct scores representing each individual’s propensity to purchase an LEV. These propensity scores were then used to match and compare the odometer-based distance travelled for demographically-similar LEVs and conventional vehicle owners. Rebound effects of 5-12% were identified in regards to the differences in annual distance driven between LEV and conventional vehicle owners, with those who commuted across the cordon boundary found to have the greatest differences suggesting that the exemption policy did increase LEV usage. Overall, it was determined that the direct emissions of LEV owners were reduced by 52.4% due to the transition to these vehicles. The findings suggest, however, that emissions could have been reduced by a further 2.4% if these apparent rebound effects had not occurred. Furthermore, this offset in emissions reductions did not include secondary effects, such as increased congestion, that would have led to greater emissions from conventional vehicles.
Low-Emission Vehicles; Environmental Vehicles; Green Vehicles; Vehicle Usage; Rebound Effects, Propensity Score Matching; Transport Emissions; Congestion Charging
Transport Systems and Logistics
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-131295OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-131295DiVA: diva2:655476
QS 20132013-10-112013-10-112013-10-25Bibliographically approved