Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Transitioning to low-emission vehicles: an analysis of the potential rebound effects and subsequent impact upon emissions
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. Queensland University of Technology.
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1360-4906
Queensland University of Technology.
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This paper examines the annual distances driven between demographically-similar, privately-owned low-emission vehicle (LEV) and conventional vehicle owners in Stockholm during 2008. This analysis was used to assess the potential rebound effects of using financial incentives to encourage a transition in the vehicle fleet from conventional vehicles to LEVs. The potential rebound effects and differences in emissions due to the transition have been estimated, along with an assessment of the effect of an exemption for LEVs from Stockholm’s congestion charging scheme, upon annual distance travelled. The analysis used vehicle registry data merged with owner-specific demographics, including home-work locations. A logistic regression was performed on these demographics to construct scores representing each individual’s propensity to purchase an LEV. These propensity scores were then used to match and compare the odometer-based distance travelled for demographically-similar LEVs and conventional vehicle owners. Rebound effects of 5-12% were identified in regards to the differences in annual distance driven between LEV and conventional vehicle owners, with those who commuted across the cordon boundary found to have the greatest differences suggesting that the exemption policy did increase LEV usage. Overall, it was determined that the direct emissions of LEV owners were reduced by 52.4% due to the transition to these vehicles. The findings suggest, however, that emissions could have been reduced by a further 2.4% if these apparent rebound effects had not occurred. Furthermore, this offset in emissions reductions did not include secondary effects, such as increased congestion, that would have led to greater emissions from conventional vehicles. 

Keyword [en]
Low-Emission Vehicles; Environmental Vehicles; Green Vehicles; Vehicle Usage; Rebound Effects, Propensity Score Matching; Transport Emissions; Congestion Charging
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-131295OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-131295DiVA: diva2:655476
Note

QS 2013

Available from: 2013-10-11 Created: 2013-10-11 Last updated: 2013-10-25Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Making the Transition to a ‘Green’ Vehicle Fleet: An analysis of the choice and usage effects of incentivising the adoption of low-emission vehicles
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Making the Transition to a ‘Green’ Vehicle Fleet: An analysis of the choice and usage effects of incentivising the adoption of low-emission vehicles
2013 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Making the transition to a ‘green’ vehicle fleet is a noteworthy endeavour for any policy maker. Under the current global pressures of increasing greenhouse gas emissions there is no doubt that all efforts that can be adopted in order to improve the sustainability of our cities should be explored. In saying this however, it is crucial when designing such policies that proper cost-benefit analyses are performed; taking into account the potentially negative rebound effects of such measures and understanding which individuals are affected by such policies.

Comprising of two papers, this thesis analyses the choice and usage effects of an exemption for low-emission vehicles (LEVs) from Stockholm’s congestion charging scheme. The ambition of this study has been to understand: the extent to which this exemption policy influenced the demand for LEVs; which individuals were targeted; whether the policy led to any rebound effects (increased LEV usage); and ultimately what the effect of this policy was in terms of changes in emissions.

Paper I employs a MNL model to examine the demographics of those individuals who purchased an LEV in Stockholm during 2008 and the extent to which the exemption policy influenced this demand. It was found that those owners living within the cordon but who commuted across the boundary for work had the highest propensity towards purchasing an exempt LEV. The exemption policy was found to have increased the share of exempt LEVs by 1.9% to 18.9% in total, corresponding to an additional 550 exempt LEV purchases in 2008 due to this policy.

In Paper II, the differences in annual usage rates between demographically-similar LEV and conventional vehicle owners are calculated using propensity score matching in order to control for potential self-selection effects. Through this procedure it was found that the direct emissions of vehicle owners who adopted LEVs were reduced by 52.4%. Although the exemption policy was partially responsible for increasing the number of LEVs, it also appears to have encouraged an increase in annual usage, leading to rebound effects that offset the potential reduction in emissions (increase in LEV usage: 12.2% for owners that lived inside / worked outside cordon; 8.5% for owners that lived outside / worked inside cordon).

Through the analysis detailed in the two papers of this thesis, the effects of an incentive based policy in Stockholm upon both the demand and usage of LEVs have been highlighted. The benefits, as well as the possible complications of this initiative have also been discussed, in the hope of enlightening policy makers to ensure that potential emissions reductions are maximised for similar policy initiatives in the future. With personal vehicles likely to continue dominating the share of home-work trips over the coming years, cities must continue their efforts in encouraging the transition to a ‘green’ vehicle fleet. It is important, however, that these efforts lead to incentive based policies that are balanced, reasonable, and designed to minimise potentially substantial rebound effects.

Abstract [sv]

Övergången till en ”grön” fordonsflotta är en betydelsefull strävan för samtliga beslutsfattare. När de globala utsläppen av växthusgaser ständigt ökar råder det ingen tvekan om att samtliga åtgärder som kan bidra till en hållbar utveckling bör implementeras. Vid utformandet av sådana åtgärder är det dock viktigt ordentliga kostnads-nyttoanalyser utförs, så att hänsyn tas till potentiellt negativa "rebound" och förestålse fås för vilka individer som påverkas.

I två artiklar analyserar denna avhandling effekterna på val och användning av ett undantag för fordon med låga utsläpp (LEV) från Stockholms trängselskatt system. Ambitionen med denna studie har varit att förstå: i vilken utsträckning detta undantag i politik påverkade efterfrågan på LEVs, vilka personer som den riktade sig till, om politiken lett till några "rebound" effekter (ökad LEV användning), och slutligen vad effekten var i termer av utsläpp.

Artikel I använder en MNL modell för att undersöka demografin av de personer som köpt en LEV i Stockholm under 2008 samt i vilken utsträckning undantaget påverkade denna efterfrågan. Det konstaterades att de ägare som bor inom avspärrningen men som pendlade över gränsen hade den högsta benägenheten att köpa en undantagen LEV. Undantagen från tränselskatt visade sig ha haft en väsentlig inverkan på efterfrågan på undantagna LEVs, andelen av dessa fordon ökade med 1,9%  till 18,9% totalt eller ytterligare 550 LEV inköp under 2008.

I artikel II beräknas skillnaderna i årlig användning mellan LEV och konventionella fordon med demografiskt liknande ägare genom "propensity score matching" i syfte att kontrollera för potentiell självselektion. Genom detta förfarande fanns de direkta utsläppen från fordonsägare som övergått till en LEV ha minskat med 52,4%. Även om undantaget från tränselskatt var delvis ansvarigt för att öka antalet LEVs verkar det också ha uppmuntrat en ökad årlig användning, vilket ledde till "rebound" effekter som motverkade den potentiella utsläppsminskningen (ökning i LEV användning för ägare som åkte över gränsen var 12,2% för dem som levde inom och 8,5 % för dem som bodde utanför).

I denna avhandling har effekterna av en incitament baserad politik i Stockholm på både efterfrågan och användning av LEVs lyfts fram. Fördelarna liksom de möjliga komplikationerna av detta initiativ har också diskuterats i hopp om att upplysa beslutsfattare så att de potentiella utsläppsminskningarna från liknande politiska initiativ i framtiden kan maximeras. Personliga fordon kommer sannolikt fortsatt dominera andelen hem-arbete resor under de kommande åren och det är därför nödvändigt att städerna fortsäter sina ansträngningar förberömvärd att uppmuntra övergången till en "grön" fordonsflotta. Det är dock viktigt att dessa ansträngningar leder till incitament baserad politik som är balanserad, rimlig och utformade för att minimera de potentiellt betydande "rebound" effekter.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2013. xv, 23 p.
Series
Trita-TSC-LIC, ISSN 1653-445X ; 13:008
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-131296 (URN)978-91-87353-18-5 (ISBN)
Presentation
2013-11-07, Nash/Wardrop, Teknikringen 10A, KTH, Stockholm, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC 20131025

Available from: 2013-10-25 Created: 2013-10-11 Last updated: 2013-10-25Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Authority records BETA

Franklin, Joel

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Whitehead, JakeFranklin, Joel
By organisation
Transport and Location AnalysisCentre for Transport Studies, CTS
Transport Systems and Logistics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

urn-nbn

Altmetric score

urn-nbn
Total: 148 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf