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Statistical Analysis of Computer Network Security
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.
2013 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

In this thesis it isshown how to measure the annual loss expectancy of computer networks due to therisk of cyber attacks. With the development of metrics for measuring theexploitation difficulty of identified software vulnerabilities, it is possibleto make a measurement of the annual loss expectancy for computer networks usingBayesian networks. To enable the computations, computer net-work vulnerabilitydata in the form of vulnerability model descriptions, vulnerable dataconnectivity relations and intrusion detection system measurements aretransformed into vector based numerical form. This data is then used to generatea probabilistic attack graph which is a Bayesian network of an attack graph.The probabilistic attack graph forms the basis for computing the annualizedloss expectancy of a computer network. Further, it is shown how to compute anoptimized order of vulnerability patching to mitigate the annual lossexpectancy. An example of computation of the annual loss expectancy is providedfor a small invented example network

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013. , 74 p.
TRITA-MAT-E, 2013:49
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-129948OAI: diva2:662361
Subject / course
Mathematical Statistics
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering -Engineering Physics
Available from: 2013-11-06 Created: 2013-10-05 Last updated: 2013-11-06Bibliographically approved

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