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Travel time estimation for urban road networks using low frequency probe vehicle data
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Traffic and Logistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4106-3126
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Traffic and Logistics.
2013 (English)In: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, ISSN 0191-2615, Vol. 53, 64-81 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The paper presents a statistical model for urban road network travel time estimation using vehicle trajectories obtained from low frequency GPS probes as observations, where the vehicles typically cover multiple network links between reports. The network model separates trip travel times into link travel times and intersection delays and allows correlation between travel times on different network links based on a spatial moving average (SMA) structure. The observation model presents a way to estimate the parameters of the network model, including the correlation structure, through low frequency sampling of vehicle traces. Link-specific effects are combined with link attributes (speed limit, functional class, etc.) and trip conditions (day of week, season, weather, etc.) as explanatory variables. The approach captures the underlying factors behind spatial and temporal variations in speeds, which is useful for traffic management, planning and forecasting. The model is estimated using maximum likelihood. The model is applied in a case study for the network of Stockholm, Sweden. Link attributes and trip conditions (including recent snowfall) have significant effects on travel times and there is significant positive correlation between segments. The case study highlights the potential of using sparse probe vehicle data for monitoring the performance of the urban transport system.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013. Vol. 53, 64-81 p.
Keyword [en]
Estimation, Low frequency sampling, Network, Probe vehicle, Travel time
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-134156DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2013.03.008ISI: 000320350200005ScopusID: 2-s2.0-84877065195OAI: diva2:665023

QC 20131118

Available from: 2013-11-18 Created: 2013-11-18 Last updated: 2013-12-12Bibliographically approved

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Jenelius, ErikKoutsopoulos, Haris N.
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