Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Cost overruns and demand shortfalls - Deception or selection?
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1789-9238
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
2013 (English)In: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, ISSN 0191-2615, E-ISSN 1879-2367, Vol. 57, 105-113 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A number of highly cited papers by Flyvbjerg and associates have shown that ex ante infrastructure appraisals tend to be overly optimistic. Ex post evaluations indicate a bias where investment costs are higher and benefits lower on average than predicted ex ante. These authors argue that the bias must be attributed to intentional misrepresentation by project developers. This paper shows that the bias may arise simply as a selection bias, without there being any bias at all in predictions ex ante, and that such a bias is bound to arise whenever ex ante predictions are related to the decisions whether to implement projects. Using a database of projects we present examples indicating that the selection bias may be substantial. The examples also indicate that benefit-cost ratios remain a useful selection criterion even when cost and benefits are highly uncertain, gainsaying the argument that such uncertainties render cost-benefit analyses useless.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013. Vol. 57, 105-113 p.
Keyword [en]
Appraisal, Cost escalation, Cost overruns, Cost-benefit analysis, Forecast accuracy, Selection bias
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-136102DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2013.09.005ISI: 000328175800007Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84885198753OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-136102DiVA: diva2:676138
Funder
Vinnova
Note

QC 20131205

Available from: 2013-12-05 Created: 2013-12-03 Last updated: 2017-12-06Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Authority records BETA

Eliasson, Jonas

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Eliasson, JonasFosgerau, Mogens
By organisation
Centre for Transport Studies, CTS
In the same journal
Transportation Research Part B: Methodological
Transport Systems and Logistics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 67 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf