ROYAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
Department of Mathematics
Division of Optimization and Systems Theory
Bachelor of Science
Modelling of panicking pedestrians during emergency evacuation
Leijonmarck and Thomas Olergard
Simulation of egress is vital for minimizing casualties during disasters, however accurate
simulations are scarce and real life data is hard to come by. We have created a mathematical
model using Matlab
TMto simulate escaping pedestrians during a panic situation
using the Social Force Model. The model has additional forces implemented both for
improving the Social Force Model and to implement a panic behavior. The panic level is
determined by elapsed time, velocity dierence, inuence of adjacent agents and solitude.
Each simulated agent is evaluated as an independent actor that navigates according to
its local perception of the dynamic environment, the laws of simulated physics that regulates
its motion, and a set of behavioral rules. For further enhancement of the model,
simulations are evaluated and used for improvements to the panic behavior. The model
simulates a primitive panicking crowd with a given oor plan, and a re blocking an
exit. The conclusion is that CEPABS exhibits somewhat realistic human behaviors and
evacuees close to re are more likely to take fatal risks, with increased panic level, the
evacuees have a higher fatality rate. The conclusions given above should be taken lightly,
as CEPABS need further evaluation, improvements and verication by empirical data
before CEPABS can be applied to practical situations.
2013. , 74 p.