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Prospective analysis of automotive powertrains: a consumer-based approach to assess natural gas vehicles market share
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
2014 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Transportation sector is one of the focal points of the sustainability strategies worldwide. The present study examines the possible development of the worldwide car market by powertrain considering different scenarios by the year 2030.The work was dedicated to primarily the modelling of the development of natural gas vehicles based on the consumer perspective. Then, a prospective model that compares the competitiveness of natural gas vehicles with other powertrains in the future has been designed. Two types of natural gas vehicles have been considered:- New model natural gas vehicles- Gasoline engine retrofit to compressed natural gasThis model considers the costs related to several powertrain technologies and integrates non-cost factors related to the use of a vehicle from the customer point of view. The customer compares powertrains and decides which vehicle he buys and thus how the vehicle fleet will look like in the future. Methodically implemented in the model, the customer decision allows an agent-based simulation of market development of various technologies and forms of energy.The model provides results with the split of future new vehicles by powertrain from 2013 to 2030 for fourteen major areas of the world, and especially the shares of natural gas vehicles by 2030. The powertrain split makes it possible the calculation of average fuel economy (in grams of CO2 per kilometer). A sensitivity analysis has also been carried out to analyse the impact of variation of several inputs, such as the oil prices or the fuel taxes, on the fleet composition by powertrain and the average fleetemissions. Ultimately, it helps identify the key drivers influencing the natural gas vehicle market and that have to be monitored. For sensitive reasons, only some of the results are presented in this paper.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Keyword [en]
Natural gas vehicles Total Cost of Ownership Consumer choice modelling
National Category
Energy Systems
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-142567OAI: diva2:706838
Subject / course
Energy and Climate Studies
Educational program
Master of Science - Sustainable Energy Engineering
2014-03-24, 11:10 (English)
Available from: 2014-05-26 Created: 2014-03-07 Last updated: 2014-05-26Bibliographically approved

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