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Technical and economical prospective study of the photovoltaics market
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Heat and Power Technology.
2014 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

This study presents the result of the internship that the author has conducted inside the Prospective Team at Total New Energies. It examines the development perspectives for the photovoltaic energy market worldwide. According to all projections from different players involved in the energy field, the market for PVs is and will continue to be steadily growing. The installed capacity is expected to be multiplied by at least 10 times in less than 20 years. Low estimations plan for 700 GW installed by 2035, while the most optimistic projections are expecting more than 1000 GW. This tremendous increase is based on several drivers but the main one may be attributed undoubtedly to the rapid decrease of costs.

Indeed, PV costs have dropped more than expected during the last several years leading to instabilities for the industry and a sharp uprise for the market. However, the price decrease has recently slowed down and the manufacturers have regrouped, making most PV companies profitable again. The situation is likely to change in the next years following the continued huge expansion that is expected to occur. New regions and countries, especially the emerging economies should take an increasing share of the PV market.

Distributed PV is also expected to keep growing. This will lead to an unprecedented amount of distributed intermittent energy the network is not designed to take in. This will lead to a change in those PV systems. Current distributed PV systems are basically PV panels and an inverter. However, with the need to integrate distributed PV and the changing regulations promoting self-consumption, new components will be included. Home Energy Management Systems and storage systems will help the PV generation and the demand to match. Aggregation and microgrids will also help utilities to manage the integration of those distributed resources.

Nevertheless, for PV systems developers, most of these components are new. It will thus call upon new competencies. For example, data analytics and algorithms will take a great importance. PV players will have to acquire them or create new relationship to succeed in this new development of the PV systems. At the same time, companies outside of the PV sector or even the energy may take advantage of some of their skills to enter in this field.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. , 51 p.
National Category
Energy Engineering
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-147006OAI: diva2:727407
2014-06-03, M263, 09:30 (English)
Available from: 2014-06-23 Created: 2014-06-20 Last updated: 2014-06-23Bibliographically approved

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