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An indicative assessment of investment opportunities in the African electricity supply sector
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4022-5506
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
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2014 (English)In: Journal of Energy in Southern Africa, ISSN 1021-447X, Vol. 25, no 1, 2-12 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In the coming decades, demand for electricity will increase considerably on the African continent. Investment in power generation, transmission and distribution is necessary to meet this demand. In this paper a cost-optimization tool is used to assess investment opportunities under varying scenarios of GDP growth, electricity trade and CO2 taxation. Business as usual fuel price outlooks are assumed, and related assumptions are relatively conservative. The goal is to find if there are economic indications that renewable energy might play a significant role in the expansion of the African electricity system. The results show that there is potential of renewable energy (RE) resources to have a significant share in the generation mix. By 2030, 42% and 55% of the total generation is powered by renewables in the high and low GDP scenarios respectively. Promotion of interregional trade can assist in unlocking RE potential across the continent, such as hydro in Central Africa and wind in East Africa; these regions are projected to be net exporters of electricity. Additionally, generation by off-grid technologies increases over time, reaching 12% of the total generation by 2030 in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. Vol. 25, no 1, 2-12 p.
Keyword [en]
renewable energy, electricity trade, power generation investment
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-148172ISI: 000337735600001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-148172DiVA: diva2:737367
Note

QC 20140812

Available from: 2014-08-12 Created: 2014-08-04 Last updated: 2017-12-05Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Large scale renewable energy deployment - Insights offered by long-term energy models from selected case studies
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Large scale renewable energy deployment - Insights offered by long-term energy models from selected case studies
2017 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7) of Agenda 2030 calls for an increase in the use of renewable energy sources, among other targets. The percentage of fossil fuel-fired thermal generation for electricity is increasingly being reduced as renewable energy technologies (RET) advance in cost-competitiveness, and as greenhouse gas and industrial air pollutant emission limits become more stringent. In certain cases, renewable energy contributes to energy security by improving a nation’s trade balance, since local resources are harnessed and imports are reduced. RET investments are becoming more frequent gaining a sizeable share in the electric power mix of numerous countries.

However, RET is affected by existing fossil fuel-fired electricity generation, especially in countries that have domestic reserves. While coal may be dirty, others such as natural gas provide multiple benefits, presenting a challenge to renewables. Additionally, RET endowment varies for each geographical location. This often does not correspond to the location of major electricity demand centers.  Therefore, large scale RET adoption and integration becomes logistically more cumbersome, as it necessitates existence of a developed grid network.

Utilizing a series of analyses in two different settings – Africa and Cyprus – this thesis draws insights on RET growth policy and the level of technology representation in long term energy models. In order to capture specific challenges of RET integration, enhancements in traditional long-term energy system models are called for and carried out.

 The case of Africa is used to assess adoption of RET under various trade scenarios. It is home to some of the world’s greatest RET resource potential and the single largest potential RET project, Grand Inga.  While, the island of Cyprus has goals of introducing large percentages of RET into its electric power mix. Each have important idiosyncrasies which are reflected in the analysis. On the one hand, natural gas competes with RET in Cyprus and forms a key transition fuel away from oil. On the other hand, lack of cross-border interconnectors limit RET project development across Africa.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2017. 79 p.
Keyword
renewable energy integration; long-term energy models; gas reserves; policy insights; cost optimization; electricity trade
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Energy Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-207364 (URN)978-91-7729-426-9 (ISBN)
Public defence
2017-06-09, M3, Brinellvägen 64, 114 28 Stockholm, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC 20170519

Available from: 2017-05-19 Created: 2017-05-19 Last updated: 2017-05-19Bibliographically approved

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