Modeling the Effects of ICT on Environmental Sustainability: Revisiting a System Dynamics Model Developed for the European Commission
2015 (English)In: ICT Innovations for Sustainability / [ed] Hilty, L.M.; Aebischer, B., Switzerland: Springer Publishing Company, 2015, 449-474 p.Chapter in book (Refereed)
This chapter revisits a System Dynamics model developed in 2002 with the aim of exploring the future impacts of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on environmental sustainability in the EU, which then consisted of 15 countries. The time horizon of the study was 20 years (2000–2020). We analyze the results in light of empirical data that is now available for 2000–2012. None of the three scenarios that were developed by experts to specify the external factors needed to run the model were realistic from today’s point of view. If the model is re-run with more realistic input data for the first half of the simulation period, however, the main results regarding the impact of ICT remain qualitatively the same; they seem to be relatively robust implications of the causal system structure, as it is represented in the model. Overall, the impacts of ICT for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental burdens for 2020 tend to be slightly stronger if the simulation is based on the empirical data now available.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Switzerland: Springer Publishing Company, 2015. 449-474 p.
, Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, ISSN 2194-5357 ; 310
Information and Communication Technology, Environmental Impact, Sustainable Development, Information Society, Socioeconomic Modeling and Simulation, System Dynamics, Prospective Technology Assessment
Other Environmental Engineering Information Systems, Social aspects
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-148965DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-09228-7_27ScopusID: 2-s2.0-84927656940ISBN: 978-3-319-09227-0 (Print) 978-3-319-09228-7 (Online)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-148965DiVA: diva2:738147
QC 201408252014-08-152014-08-152015-08-13Bibliographically approved