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An architecture modeling framework for probabilistic prediction
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Industrial Information and Control Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3293-1681
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Industrial Information and Control Systems.
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Industrial Information and Control Systems.
FOI - Swedish Defence Research Agency, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2017-7914
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2014 (English)In: Information Systems and E-Business Management, ISSN 1617-9846, E-ISSN 1617-9854, Vol. 12, no 4, 595-622 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In the design phase of business and IT system development, it is desirable to predict the properties of the system-to-be. A number of formalisms to assess qualities such as performance, reliability and security have therefore previously been proposed. However, existing prediction systems do not allow the modeler to express uncertainty with respect to the design of the considered system. Yet, in contemporary business, the high rate of change in the environment leads to uncertainties about present and future characteristics of the system, so significant that ignoring them becomes problematic. In this paper, we propose a formalism, the Predictive, Probabilistic Architecture Modeling Framework (P(2)AMF), capable of advanced and probabilistically sound reasoning about business and IT architecture models, given in the form of Unified Modeling Language class and object diagrams. The proposed formalism is based on the Object Constraint Language (OCL). To OCL, P(2)AMF adds a probabilistic inference mechanism. The paper introduces P(2)AMF, describes its use for system property prediction and assessment and proposes an algorithm for probabilistic inference.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. Vol. 12, no 4, 595-622 p.
Keyword [en]
Assessment, Business properties, Object Constraint Language, Prediction, Probabilistic inference, System properties, UML
National Category
Computer Systems Economics and Business
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-149177DOI: 10.1007/s10257-014-0241-8ISI: 000344741500006ScopusID: 2-s2.0-84912040897OAI: diva2:738217

QC 20141212

Available from: 2014-08-16 Created: 2014-08-16 Last updated: 2014-12-12Bibliographically approved

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Johnson, PontusUllberg, JohanBuschle, MarkusFranke, UlrikShahzad, Khurram
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