Investigation on the use of NCEP/NCAR, MERRA and NCEP/CFSR reanalysis data in wind resource analysis
2011 (English)In: Eur. Wind Energy Conf. Exhib., EWEC, 2011, 181-185 p.Conference paper (Refereed)
This study aims to investigate the use of different reanalysis datasets in energy production estimates. Wind data from three distinct datasets are analyzed for the territory of Sweden. These are the NCEP/NCAR, the MERRA and the NCEP/CFSR reanalysis datasets. NCEP/NCAR has been commonly used in wind resource analysis during the last decade, while MERRA and NCEP/CFSR were recently released. The higher spatial and temporal resolutions of MERRA and NCEP/CFSR reanalysis data allow a better representation of the local wind climate. An average improvement of 16% in correlation coefficient with local wind measurements is obtained for MERRA and 15% for NCEP/CFSR when compared to NCEP/NCAR. Although the three reanalysis datasets appear to be fairly consistent in space, the temporal consistency of some grid data is rather poor. Wind speed data from some NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/CFSR grid points show strong upward long-term trends for the period of 1980-2009. MERRA wind speed data present a high temporal consistency shown by the typically weak downward long-term trends. A case study is presented where the use of inconsistent reanalysis wind data is shown to infer an error of 14% in the energy production estimate, which is highly significant. The use of MERRA and NCEP/CFSR reanalysis wind data represents a relevant improvement in accuracy for energy production estimates. However, the choice of the most appropriate grid data and the evaluation of the associated uncertainty should be carefully analyzed for each specific case.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2011. 181-185 p.
, European Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition 2011, EWEC 2011
Correlation analysis, Local wind measurements, Long-term trend, MCP, Reanalysis data, Reanalysis, Wind measurement, Estimation, Exhibitions, Wind effects, Wind power, Uncertainty analysis
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-150197ScopusID: 2-s2.0-84870163669ISBN: 9781618399915OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-150197DiVA: diva2:743749
European Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition 2011, EWEC 2011, 14 March 2011 through 17 March 2011, Brussels, Belgium
QC 201409052014-09-052014-09-012014-09-05Bibliographically approved