Change search
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Forecasting demand for high speed rail
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Traffic and Logistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9235-0232
2014 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, Vol. 70, 81-92 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

It is sometimes argued that standard state-of-practice logit-based models cannot forecast the demand for substantially reduced travel times, for instance due to High Speed Rail (HSR). The present paper investigates this issue by reviewing the literature on travel time elasticities for long distance rail travel and comparing these with elasticities observed when new HSR lines have opened. This paper also validates the Swedish long distance model, Sampers, and its forecast demand for a proposed new HSR, using aggregate data revealing how the air-rail modal split varies with the difference in generalized travel time between rail and air. The Sampers long distance model is also compared to a newly developed model applying Box-Cox transformations. The paper contributes to the empirical literature on long distance travel, long distance elasticities and HSR passenger demand forecasts. Results indicate that the Sampers model is indeed able to predict the demand for HSR reasonably well. The new non-linear model has even better model fit and also slightly higher elasticities.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. Vol. 70, 81-92 p.
Keyword [en]
Air-rail share, Cost-benefit analysis Box-Cox transformation of travel time, Demand, Forecasting, High speed rail
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-159130DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2014.10.010ISI: 000346894300008ScopusID: 2-s2.0-84909973973OAI: diva2:783685

QC 20150127

Available from: 2015-01-27 Created: 2015-01-22 Last updated: 2015-01-27Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Börjesson, Maria
By organisation
Traffic and Logistics
In the same journal
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
Transport Systems and Logistics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Altmetric score

Total: 114 hits
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link