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Land-use impacts in transport appraisal
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport planning, economics and engineering. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9235-0232
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport planning, economics and engineering. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8901-5978
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport planning, economics and engineering. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System analysis and economics. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
2014 (English)In: Research in Transportation Economics, ISSN 0739-8859, E-ISSN 1875-7979, Vol. 47, 82-91 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Standard cost-benefit analysis (CBA) does not take into account induced demand due to relocation triggered by infrastructure investments. Using an integrated transport and land-use model calibrated for the Stockholm region, we explore whether this has any significant impact on the CBA outcome, and in particular on the relative ranking of rail and road investments. Our results indicate that induced demand has a larger impact on the benefit of rail investments than on the benefit of road investments. The effect on the relative ranking is still limited for two reasons. First, the number of houses that are built over 20 30 years is limited in comparison to the size of the existing housing stock. Second, the location of most of the new houses is not affected by any single infrastructure investment, since the latter has a marginal effect on total accessibility in a city with a mature transport system. A second aim of this paper is to investigate the robustness of the relative CBA ranking of rail and road investments, with respect to the planning policy in the region 25 years ahead. While the results suggest that this ranking is surprisingly robust, there is a tendency that the net benefit of rail investments is more sensitive to the future planning policy than road investments. Our results also underscore that the future land-use planning in the region in general has a considerably stronger impact on accessibility and car use than individual road or rail investments have.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. Vol. 47, 82-91 p.
Keyword [en]
Cost-benefit analysis, Transport planning, Land-use planning
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-161571DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2014.09.021ISI: 000349567700009Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84922792869OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-161571DiVA: diva2:798327
Note

QC 20150326

Available from: 2015-03-26 Created: 2015-03-13 Last updated: 2017-12-04Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Three essays on transport CBA uncertainty
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Three essays on transport CBA uncertainty
2015 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) has for a long time been used in transport planning, but it is often questioned. One main argument against CBA is that the results depend largely on assumptions regarding one or a few input factors, as for example the future fuel price or valuation of CO2 emissions.

The three papers included in this thesis investigate some aspects of uncertainty in transport CBA calculations. The two first papers explore how changes in input data assumptions affect the CBA ranking of six rail and road investments in Stockholm. The first paper deals with the effect of different land-use assumptions while the second deals with the influence of economic growth, driving cost and public transport fare. The third paper investigates how alternative formulations of the public transport mode choice and route choice affect travel flows, ticket revenues and consumer surplus. These are important factors previously known to affect CBA results.

The findings of the first two papers suggest that CBA results are robust concerning different land-use scenarios and single input factors. No change in rank between a road and a rail object is observed in the performed model calculations, and only one change between two road objects. The fact that CBA results seem robust regarding input assumptions supports the use CBA as a tool for selecting transport investments. The results in the third paper indicate that if there is detailed interest in, for example, number of boardings and ticket income from a certain transit line, or the total benefit of a price change, a more detailed formulation of the public transport mode choice and route choice will provide more reliable results. On the other hand, this formulation requires substantially more data on the transit line and price structure than the conventional formulation used in Swedish transport planning, especially in areas with many different pricing systems.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2015. 21 p.
Series
TRITA-TSC-LIC, ISSN 1653-445X ; 15-001
Keyword
Cost-Benefit Analysis, Transport planning, Land-use planning
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-163355 (URN)978-91-87353-69-7 (ISBN)
Presentation
2015-05-08, Sal L31, Drottning Kristinas Väg 30, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC 20150414

Available from: 2015-04-14 Created: 2015-03-31 Last updated: 2015-04-14Bibliographically approved

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Börjesson, MariaJonsson, R. Daniel

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