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Three essays on transport CBA uncertainty
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System analysis and economics. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
2015 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) has for a long time been used in transport planning, but it is often questioned. One main argument against CBA is that the results depend largely on assumptions regarding one or a few input factors, as for example the future fuel price or valuation of CO2 emissions.

The three papers included in this thesis investigate some aspects of uncertainty in transport CBA calculations. The two first papers explore how changes in input data assumptions affect the CBA ranking of six rail and road investments in Stockholm. The first paper deals with the effect of different land-use assumptions while the second deals with the influence of economic growth, driving cost and public transport fare. The third paper investigates how alternative formulations of the public transport mode choice and route choice affect travel flows, ticket revenues and consumer surplus. These are important factors previously known to affect CBA results.

The findings of the first two papers suggest that CBA results are robust concerning different land-use scenarios and single input factors. No change in rank between a road and a rail object is observed in the performed model calculations, and only one change between two road objects. The fact that CBA results seem robust regarding input assumptions supports the use CBA as a tool for selecting transport investments. The results in the third paper indicate that if there is detailed interest in, for example, number of boardings and ticket income from a certain transit line, or the total benefit of a price change, a more detailed formulation of the public transport mode choice and route choice will provide more reliable results. On the other hand, this formulation requires substantially more data on the transit line and price structure than the conventional formulation used in Swedish transport planning, especially in areas with many different pricing systems.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2015. , 21 p.
Series
TRITA-TSC-LIC, ISSN 1653-445X ; 15-001
Keyword [en]
Cost-Benefit Analysis, Transport planning, Land-use planning
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-163355ISBN: 978-91-87353-69-7 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-163355DiVA: diva2:799724
Presentation
2015-05-08, Sal L31, Drottning Kristinas Väg 30, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC 20150414

Available from: 2015-04-14 Created: 2015-03-31 Last updated: 2015-04-14Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Land-use impacts in transport appraisal
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Land-use impacts in transport appraisal
2014 (English)In: Research in Transportation Economics, ISSN 0739-8859, E-ISSN 1875-7979, Vol. 47, 82-91 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Standard cost-benefit analysis (CBA) does not take into account induced demand due to relocation triggered by infrastructure investments. Using an integrated transport and land-use model calibrated for the Stockholm region, we explore whether this has any significant impact on the CBA outcome, and in particular on the relative ranking of rail and road investments. Our results indicate that induced demand has a larger impact on the benefit of rail investments than on the benefit of road investments. The effect on the relative ranking is still limited for two reasons. First, the number of houses that are built over 20 30 years is limited in comparison to the size of the existing housing stock. Second, the location of most of the new houses is not affected by any single infrastructure investment, since the latter has a marginal effect on total accessibility in a city with a mature transport system. A second aim of this paper is to investigate the robustness of the relative CBA ranking of rail and road investments, with respect to the planning policy in the region 25 years ahead. While the results suggest that this ranking is surprisingly robust, there is a tendency that the net benefit of rail investments is more sensitive to the future planning policy than road investments. Our results also underscore that the future land-use planning in the region in general has a considerably stronger impact on accessibility and car use than individual road or rail investments have.

Keyword
Cost-benefit analysis, Transport planning, Land-use planning
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-161571 (URN)10.1016/j.retrec.2014.09.021 (DOI)000349567700009 ()2-s2.0-84922792869 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20150326

Available from: 2015-03-26 Created: 2015-03-13 Last updated: 2017-12-04Bibliographically approved
2. The impact of travel costs and economic growth on cost-benefit analysis rankings
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The impact of travel costs and economic growth on cost-benefit analysis rankings
2012 (English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The use of Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) as a tool for selecting transport investments is often questioned. It is not unusual that politicians or others in the public debate argue that the outcome of a CBA completely rely on assumptions concerning a particular input factor, such as valuation of CO2 emissions or future fuel price. This paper explores whether the relative ranking of CBA outcomes are robust with respect to some key inputs in transport demand analysis driving cost, public transport fare and economic growth. We study six different infrastructure objects (three road and three rail objects) and four alternative assumptions on input factors compared to a reference scenario.

The findings suggest that single input factors in a CBA, individually have a small impact on the ranking of the studied investments. In our model calculations we observe no change in rank between a road and a rail object.

Publisher
18 p.
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-115988 (URN)
Funder
TrenOp, Transport Research Environment with Novel Perspectives
Note

QC 20150114

Available from: 2013-01-15 Created: 2013-01-15 Last updated: 2016-06-13Bibliographically approved
3. Modelling the effect of transit supply and price structure on mode choice and route choice
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modelling the effect of transit supply and price structure on mode choice and route choice
2011 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This paper develops a new mode choice and transit route choice model for work trips by either car or transit. In contrast to the conventional regional traffic models used for transportation planning in Sweden, the model accounts for the fact that the value of time varies within a population of travellers making a trip with the same purpose and the fact that the price can differ between different transit lines (bus, regional trains, etc.). A mixed binomial logit (MXL) model with a lognormally distributed cost parameter has been estimated for the mode choice. The MXL specification makes it possible to capture some of the variation in the value of time. The transit route choice model rests on the assumption that transit commuters purchase travel passes that are valid for a certain time period, e.g. a month. The travel pass then allows the traveller to use a certain set of transit lines, while others are not available. For the mode choice, the traveller compares travel cost and time with the chosen pass with the travel cost and time by car. The results from performed analyses indicate that if the interest is in overall mode share and overall travel flows, the conventional method in Swedish transport modelling will suffice. However, if the interest is more detailed, for example concerning boardings and ticket income from a certain transit line, or the total benefit of a price change, the model developed in this paper will give more reliable results.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Glasgow, UK: , 2011
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-115987 (URN)
Conference
European Transport conference 2011
Note

TSC import 2112 2013-01-15 QC 20130524

Available from: 2013-01-15 Created: 2013-01-15 Last updated: 2016-06-13Bibliographically approved

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