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Reliability-based calibration for a mechanics-based fatigue cracking design procedure
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Soil and Rock Mechanics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7174-7214
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0889-6078
2016 (English)In: International Journal on Road Materials and Pavement Design, ISSN 1468-0629, E-ISSN 2164-7402, Vol. 17, no 3, 529-546 p.Article in journal (Other academic) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a new reliability-based code calibration in load resistance factor design (LRFD) format for the mechanics-based fatigue cracking analysis framework. The pavement design procedure incorporates an appropriate failure criterion and design period. Moreover, it provides uniform performance at the desired level of reliability while considering the inherent variabilities and uncertainties involved. A number of field pavement sections with well documented performance histories and high quality field and laboratory data were used for this purpose. Moreover, a reliability computation methodology that incorporates a central composite design (CCD) response surface approach (RS) is proposed. Appropriate statistical characterization of the dominant design parameters was performed considering its key role in reliability analysis. A first order reliability method (FORM) was used to compute pavement performance reliability and to establish the partial safety factors of the design procedure. Illustrative examples based on the developed LRFD procedure have demonstrated clearly its capacity of delivering designs with uniform reliability.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2016. Vol. 17, no 3, 529-546 p.
Keyword [en]
LRFD, top-down cracking, pavement design, CCD, response surface, FORM
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-165276DOI: 10.1080/14680629.2015.1094397ISI: 000379747600001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84976334795OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-165276DiVA: diva2:807821
Note

QC 20160818

Available from: 2015-04-24 Created: 2015-04-24 Last updated: 2017-12-04Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Reliability-based Design Procedure for Flexible Pavements
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Reliability-based Design Procedure for Flexible Pavements
2015 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Load induced top-down fatigue cracking has been recognized recently as a major distress phenomenon in asphalt pavements. This failure mode has been observed in many parts of the world, and in some regions, it was found to be more prevalent and a primary cause of pavements failure. The main factors which are identified as potential causes of top down fatigue cracking are primarily linked to age hardening, mixtures fracture resistance and unbound layers stiffness. Mechanistic Empirical analytical models, which are based on hot mix asphalt fracture mechanics (HMA-FM) and that could predict crack initiation time and propagation rate, have been developed and shown their capacity in delivering acceptable predictions. However, in these methods, the effect of age hardening and healing is not properly accounted and moreover, these models do not consider the effect of mixture morphology influence on long term pavement performance. Another drawback of these models is, as analysis tools they are not suitable to be used for pavement design purpose. The main objective of this study is to develop a reliability calibrated design framework in load resistance factor design (LRFD) format which could be implemented to design pavement sections against top down fatigue cracking.

For this purpose, asphalt mixture morphology based sub-models were developed and incorporated to HMA-FM to characterize the effect of aging and degradation on fracture resistance and healing potential. These sub-models were developed empirically exploiting the observed relation that exist between mixture morphology and fracture resistance. The developed crack initiation prediction model was calibrated and validated using pavement sections that have high quality laboratory data and observed field performance history. As traffic volume was identified in having a dominant influence on predicted performance, two separate model calibration and validation studies were undertaken based on expected traffic volume. The predictions result for both model calibration and validation was found to be in an excellent agreement with the observed performance in the field.

A LRFD based design framework was suggested that could be implemented to optimize pavement sections against top-down fatigue cracking. To achieve this objective, pavement sections with various design target reliabilities and functional requirements were analyzed and studied.  A simplified but efficient limit state equation was generated using a central composite design (CCD) based response surface methodology, and FORM based reliability analysis was implemented to compute reliabilities and formulate associated partial safety factors. A design example using the new partial safety factors have clearly illustrated the potential of the new method, which could be used to supplement existing design procedures.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2015. x, 20 p.
Series
TRITA-JOB. LIC, ISSN 1650-951X ; 2027
Keyword
Top-Down fatigue cracking, asphalt mixture morphology, fracture mechanics, response surface, reliability analysis, load resistance factor design
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering
Research subject
Civil and Architectural Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-165280 (URN)
Presentation
2015-05-08, B23, Brinellvägen 23, KTH, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC 20150427

Available from: 2015-04-27 Created: 2015-04-24 Last updated: 2015-04-27Bibliographically approved
2. Mechanics-based Design Framework for Flexible Pavements
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Mechanics-based Design Framework for Flexible Pavements
2016 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Load induced top-down fatigue cracking has been recognized recently as a major distress phenomenon in asphalt pavements. This paper presents a mechanics-based design framework in load and resistance factor design (LRFD) format for the top-down fatigue cracking performance evaluation of flexible pavements. This was achieved by enhancing further the hot mix asphalt fracture mechanics (HMA-FM) model through the incorporation of mixture morphology influence on key fracture properties, and incorporating partial safety factors to account for variabilities and uncertainties. The analysis framework was calibrated and validated using pavement sections that have high quality laboratory data and well documented field performance histories. Moreover, as traffic volume was identified in having a dominant influence on predicted performance, a further investigation was performed to establish and evaluate truck traffic characterization parameters effect on predicted results.

A two-component reliability analysis methodology, which uses central composite design (CCD) based response surface approach for surrogate model generation and the first order reliability method (FORM) for reliability estimation was used for the development of the LRFD mechanics-based design framework. The effectiveness of the design framework was investigated through design examples, and the results have shown that the formulated partial safety factors have accounted effectively the variabilities involved in the design process. Further investigation was performed to establish the influence design inputs variabilities have on target reliabilities through case studies that combine input variabilities in a systematic way. It was observed from the results that the coefficient of variation (COV) level of the variability irrespective of the distribution type used have a significant influence on estimated target reliability.

Abstract [sv]

Lastinducerade utmattningssprickor från ytan har nyligen identifierats som en betydande brottmekanism i asfaltbeläggningar. Denna avhandling presenterar ett mekanik-baserat ramverk i last- och motståndsfaktorer konstruktionsformat (LRFD) för utvärdering av utmattningssprickor från ytan för asfaltsbeläggningar. Detta uppnåddes genom att ytterligare förbättra brottmekanikmodellen för varmblandad asfalt (HMA-FM) genom integreringen av blandingens morfologieffekt på brottegenskaper samt säkerhetsfaktorer för att beakta variabilitet och osäkerheter. Ramverket kalibrerades och validerades med hjälp av vägar med säkerställda egenskaper och väldokumenterad prestanda. Eftersom trafikvolymen identifierades att ha ett dominerande inflytande på förväntad prestanda, utfördes vidare en utredning för att fastställa effekten av lastbilstrafikens karakteriseringsparametrar på förutsedd prestanda.

Tillförlitlighetsanalysen uppnåddes genom att implementera en tvåkomponents tillförlitlighetsanalys där en metod som kallas ”central composite design” (CCD), vilken skapar en surrogatmodell, och första ordningens tillförlitlighetsmetod (FORM) för beräkning av tillförlitligheten. Effektiviteten i det mekanik-baserade konstruktionsramverket undersöktes genom konstruktionsexempel och resultaten har tydligt visat att de formulerade partialkoefficienter effektivt har beaktat variabiliteten inom konstruktionsprocessen. Ytterligare undersökningar utfördes för att fastställa påverkan som indatas variabilitet har på den förutbestämda tillförlitligheten genom fallstudier där indatans variabilitet ändras systematiskt. Det observerades från resultaten att variabilitetens variationskoefficient (COV) har en signifikant inverkan på tillförlitligheten, oberoende av fördelningstyp.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2016. 59 p.
Series
TRITA-JOB. PHD, 1024
Keyword
Mechanics-based, asphalt, fatigue, reliability, traffic, variability, Mekanik-baserade, utmattningssprickor, pålitlighet, lastbilstrafiken, variabilitet
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering
Research subject
Civil and Architectural Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-196883 (URN)978-91-7729-223-4 (ISBN)
Public defence
2016-12-16, K1, Teknikringen 56, Stockholm, 10:30 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Swedish Transport Administration
Note

QC 20161125

Available from: 2016-11-25 Created: 2016-11-24 Last updated: 2016-11-25Bibliographically approved

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