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Rolling Horizon Predictions of Bus Trajectories
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0089-6543
Delft University of Technology - TU Delft, Netherlands.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4506-0459
2014 (English)In: OPT-i 2014 - 1st International Conference on Engineering and Applied Sciences Optimization, Proceedings, 2014, 875-886 p.Conference paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Bus travel times are subject to inherent and recurrent uncertainties. A real-time prediction scheme regarding how the transit system evolves will potentially facilitate more adaptive operations as well as more adaptive passengers’ decisions. This scheme should be tractable, sufficiently fast and reliable to be used in real time applications. For this purpose, a heuristic hybrid scheme for departure time estimation is proposed in this study. The prediction generated by the proposed hybrid scheme consists of three travel time components: schedule, instantaneous and historical data sources. Genetic algorithm is applied in order to specify the contribution of each data source component to the prediction scheme. The proposed scheme was applied for a trunk bus line in Stockholm, Sweden. In addition, the currently deployed scheme was replicated in order to compare the performance of both schemes. The results suggest that the proposed scheme reduces the overall mean absolute error by almost 20%. Moreover the proposed scheme provides better predictions except for very long term predictions where both schemes yield the same performance. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. 875-886 p.
Keyword [en]
Bus departure time, Optimization, Prediction, Travel time and Genetic algorithm
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-165862ScopusID: 2-s2.0-84911881700ISBN: 9789609999465OAI: diva2:808942
1st International Conference on Engineering and Applied Sciences Optimization, OPT-i 2014; Kos Island; Greece; 4 June 2014 through 6 June 2014

QC 20150430. QC 20160221

Available from: 2015-04-29 Created: 2015-04-29 Last updated: 2016-02-21Bibliographically approved

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