Efficient importance sampling technique for estimating operating risks in power systems with large amounts of wind power
2014 (English)In: Proceedings of the 13th International Workshop on Large-scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants / [ed] Uta Betancourt, Thomas Ackermann, Energynautics GmbH, 2014Conference paper (Refereed)
Uncertainties faced by operators of power systems are expected to increase with increasing amounts of wind power. This paper presents a method to design efficient importance sampling estimators to estimate the operating risk by Monte-Carlo simulations given the joint probability distribution describing the wind power and load forecasts. The operating risk is defined as the probability of violating stability and / or operating constraints. The method relies on an exisiting framework for rare-event simulations but takes into account the peculiarities of power systems. In case studies, it is shown that the number of Monte-Carlo runs needed to achieve a certain accuracy on the estimator can be reduced by up to three orders of magnitude.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Energynautics GmbH, 2014.
Wind power, Importance sampling, Rare-event simulation, Monte-Carlo
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-166265ISBN: 978-3-98 13870-9-4OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-166265DiVA: diva2:810222
13th Wind Integration Workshop,22 - 24 October 2013 | London, UK
QC 201505072015-05-062015-05-062015-05-08Bibliographically approved