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Nutrient loadings from urban catchments under climate change scenarios: Case studies in Stockholm, Sweden
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Industrial Ecology.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2829-2928
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Industrial Ecology.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4530-3414
2015 (English)In: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 518-519, 393-406 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Anthropogenic nutrient emissions and associated eutrophication of urban lakes are a global problem. Future changes in temperature and precipitation may influence nutrient loadings in lake catchments. A coupling method, where the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions method was tested in combination with source quantification in a Substance Flow Analysis structure, was suggested to investigate diffuse nutrient sources and pathways and climate change effects on the loadings to streamflow in urban catchments. This method may, with an acceptable level of uncertainty, be applied to urban catchments for first-hand estimations of nutrient loadings in the projected future and to highlight the need for further study and monitoring. Five lake catchments in Stockholm, Sweden (Råcksta Träsk, Judarn, Trekanten, Långsjön and Laduviken) were employed as case studies and potential climate change effects were explored by comparing loading scenarios in two periods (2000-2009 and 2021-2030). For the selected cases, the dominant diffuse sources of nutrients to urban streamflow were found to be background atmospheric concentration and vehicular traffic. The major pathways of the nitrogen loading were suggested to be from both developed areas and natural areas in the control period, while phosphorus was indicated to be largely transported through surface runoff from natural areas. Furthermore, for nitrogen, a modest redistribution of loadings from surface runoff and stormwater between seasons and an increase in the annual loading were suggested for the projected future climate scenarios as compared to the control period. The model was, due to poor monitoring data availability, only able to set an upper limit to nutrient transport by groundwater both in the control period and the future scenarios. However, for nitrogen, groundwater appeared to be the pathway most sensitive to climate change, with a considerable increase and seasonal redistribution of loadings. For phosphorus, loadings by different pathways were apparently less sensitive to climate change.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2015. Vol. 518-519, 393-406 p.
Keyword [en]
Climate change, Diffuse sources, Nutrient loadings, Substance Flow Analysis, Urban catchments, Catchments, Eutrophication, Groundwater, Lakes, Nitrogen, Nutrients, Phosphorus, River pollution, Runoff, Stream flow, Atmospheric concentration, Climate change scenarios, Future climate scenarios, Generalized watershed loading functions, Nutrient loading, Urban catchment, ground water, rain, catchment, climate effect, lacustrine environment, nutrient enrichment, stormwater, streamflow, urban area, Article, atmospheric deposition, body surface, environmental monitoring, environmental protection, flow measurement, geographic distribution, hydrology, land use, nitrate leaching, priority journal, quantitative analysis, residential area, stream (river), Sweden, watershed, Stockholm [Sweden]
National Category
Environmental Sciences
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-167703DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.02.041ISI: 000353225700041ScopusID: 2-s2.0-84924571154OAI: diva2:816028

QC 20150602

Available from: 2015-06-02 Created: 2015-05-22 Last updated: 2016-08-10Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Systems Perspectives on Modelling and Managing Future Anthropogenic Emissions in Urban Areas: Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Carbon Studies in Stockholm, Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Systems Perspectives on Modelling and Managing Future Anthropogenic Emissions in Urban Areas: Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Carbon Studies in Stockholm, Sweden
2016 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Managing anthropogenic emissions in urban areas is a major challenge in sustainable environmental development for cities, and future changes and increasing urbanisation may increase this challenge. Systems perspectives have become increasingly important in helping urban managers understand how different changes may alter future emissions and whether current management strategies can efficiently manage these emissions. This thesis provides some systems perspectives that have been lacking in previous studies on modelling and managing future anthropogenic emissions in urban areas. The city of Stockholm, Sweden, was selected as the study site and studies about nitrogen, phosphorus and carbon were chosen, given world-wide urban eutrophication and global concerns about climate change. A substance flow analysis (SFA) structured model, comprising a source model coupled with a watershed model in an SFA structure, was developed to investigate future nutrient loading scenarios under various urban changes in small urban lake catchments. The results demonstrated that climate change potentially posed a greater threat to future nutrient loads to a selected lake catchment in Stockholm than the other scenarios examined. Another SFA-based study on future phosphorus flows through the city of Stockholm indicated that the best management option may depend on the perspective applied when comparing future scenarios of phosphorus flows and that both upstream and downstream measures need to be considered in managing urban phosphorus flows. An evaluation approach for examining current management plans and low-carbon city initiatives using the Driving forces-Pressure-States-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework, was formulated. With such an evaluation approach, investigation of how well selected plans cover different aspects of the DPSIR framework and whether root causes and systematic measures are highlighted is possible. The results revealed that the current low-carbon city initiative in Stockholm falls within pressure-based, driver-orientated plans and that technical, institutional and cognitional measures are generally well covered. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2016. x, 60 p.
, TRITA-IM-PHD 2016:02, ISSN ISBN 978-91-7595-961-0
Anthropogenic emissions, Urban development, Future, Substance flow analysis (SFA), DPSIR.
National Category
Environmental Sciences
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-186245 (URN)
Public defence
2016-06-02, V2, Teknikringen 76, KTH-Campus, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)

QC 20160510

Available from: 2016-05-10 Created: 2016-05-07 Last updated: 2016-05-10Bibliographically approved

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