Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE credits
The installed wind power capacity has increased rapidly over the last decades
and wind power now has a strong impact on the European electric system. The
development of wind power is expected to continue in the coming decades and
it is therefore crucial to correctly take it into account in network simulations of
the future system.
Metrix is a model used at EDF R&D for technical and economical simulations
of the European electric system. It uses a multi-scenario approach that
aims at calculating different possible states of the network for a chosen moment
in the future. Until this master thesis, the generation of the wind farms was
the same in all the scenarios. This does not reflect the high variability of wind
power generation and does not allow to correctly simulate the effects of wind
power on the system.
The goal of the project presented in this report is to integrate a multiscenario
approach of wind power with spatial variations in Metrix in order to
represent a range of wind power situations that is representative of what might
happen at a simulated moment in the future. The chosen method consists of
using wind scenarios from the past, applying them to the future wind park and
integrating them in the scenarios used in the simulations. The database of wind
situations used in this project allows to have 13 wind zones over Europe.
An analysis of the seasonal and diurnal cycles of wind power generation is
performed for the abovementioned purpose. The methodology is applied to the
study of the winter peak and leads to the choice of up to 1092 suitable wind
power scenarios. Then, statistical methods are used to estimate the number
of scenarios that is necessary to reach the desired accuracy in the simulation
results. Finally, the benefits of the proposed approach of wind power are demonstrated
by showing how it allows to analyse the impact of wind power generation
on different system quantities and components.
2015. , 105 p.