Change search
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Modelling Football as a Markov Process: Estimating transition probabilities through regression analysis and investigating it’s application to live betting markets
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.
2015 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Om modellering av fotboll som Markovprocess : Estimering av övergångssannolikheter med hjälp av regressionsanalys. Tillämpningar inom live betting marknader (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

This degree thesis aims for a modeling of football set pieces (i.e Throw Ins, Free Kicks, Goal Kicks and Corners) through the use of Markov theory. By using regression analysis on a various range of covariates we will try to estimate the transition probabilities of such a process from a state to another and investigate what factors might have an impact on these probabilities. Although not reaching a sufficiently high level of variance explanation, the model constructed shows strong significance and let us believe that an articulation of it could lead to a strong model for these set pieces. Furthermore we will proceed with an analysis addressing the application of such modeling within the pricing processes of betting companies, based on a case study of Metric Gaming. Undertaking an operational management perspective, we will assess which level of implementation of such modeling is the most efficient, and what consequences it will have in two sub-perspectives; the risk management and branding of the company

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
TRITA-MAT-K, 2015:11
National Category
Mathematical Analysis
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-170154OAI: diva2:828101
Subject / course
Applied Mathematical Analysis
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering - Industrial Engineering and Management
Available from: 2015-06-29 Created: 2015-06-28 Last updated: 2015-08-25Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(3683 kB)231 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 3683 kBChecksum SHA-512
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

By organisation
Mathematical Statistics
Mathematical Analysis

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 231 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Total: 455 hits
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link